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GEAB 175

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2023

Trends in a changing world

Mexico, 2025/2026, a + in the BRICS+ world

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, AMLO, has one year left to make his country a permanent member of the group of sovereign and equal states[1] and to consolidate all the changes he has brought about in the last five years.

In the “Reader’s eye on the future” published in this issue of the GEAB, we discuss the situation of Mexico, and its very special place in the multipolar world. Flanked by the northern subcontinent (at the gateway to North America[2]) and the southern subcontinent (the first step towards the South American continent), a bottleneck for migratory flows from Central America, between the Atlantic (Europe) and the Pacific (China), Mexico is essentially a multipolar player.

The 14th world economic power, it is a member of numerous geopolitical, community and economic partnerships, the main ones being G20, Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), APEC (Asia Pacific), ATP (Trans-Pacific Alliance), MERCOSUR (South American Common Market), CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States), FTA EU-MX (EU/Mexico Free Trade Agreement) and the OAS (Organisation of American States, which it is in favour of reforming to get rid of US tutelage). What is missing is a more advanced partnership with the BRICS and/or the SCO (there are rumours of a possible application for membership, but these are just rumours[3]), a step that the country has not yet taken (even if the various BRICS and SCO partners are also present in the structures of which Mexico is a member), but which it could take, by 2025/2026, if the ballot boxes in 2024 allow the presidential party to remain in power.[4]

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Contents

We hear a lot about the end of civilisation linked to the arrival of AI, which ChatGPT has made clear for everyone. Human beings would have no or very little [...]

Never let a crisis go to waste. The US regional banking crisis continues to gather pace. As out of control as the situation seems, our team believes that the American [...]

Francesco Magistra is co-founder and chairman of the Nemesis Group, an asset management and multi-family office company. Thanks to his 35-year experience in the region, he has developed a deep understanding [...]

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