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Oil: Expect a short-term rise fueled by geopolitical tensions If you have read our overview and trends for 2025, you will know that our team is relatively optimistic that the conflicts between China and the United States and between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved in 2025. However, this will not happen immediately, and tensions […]

Over a hundred of you clicked on the link to the questionnaire we included in the article “Who will be the next public enemy No. 1?” This demonstrates a genuine desire for interaction, which we are thrilled to see and will certainly offer again. In response to the first closed question, “Do you agree with […]

The past few years have been defined by a series of global upheavals that have challenged financial globalisation as we’ve known it. In 2025, these disruptions will reach a critical juncture, compelling central banks to reassess their priorities. As stewards of price stability, they will need to adapt to events that will have lasting inflationary […]

Europe’s geopolitical game of musical chairs End of the war in Ukraine During the first half of the year, a peace agreement will have been signed between the Russians and the Ukrainians, with the help of the United States and China, by bringing major new players like Turkey to the table. The terms of the […]

With the US withdrawal from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict now in sight, Europe will be forced to confront its own responsibilities and the European edifice will likely crumble under the weight of reality. As we’ve previously mentioned[1], Europe’s ideological straitjacket will be violently challenged in 2025, marking one of the defining features of the year, in […]

The start of January marks the 19th anniversary of your faithful monthly bulletin. We extend our gratitude for your extraordinary support, which has made these years of publication possible. If we are still here, it is also because of the relevance of our anticipation method – a method that proved its value as early as […]

Central Asia: Nuclear power as a strategic lever Central Asia, rich in natural resources, is increasingly exploring nuclear power for its energy needs. Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer of uranium, is aiming to build its first nuclear power station[1], with the support of China. Uzbekistan, which is also rich in uranium, has signed agreements with […]

Many people view digital data as the oil of the 21st century, but the natural resources required to produce it are rare earth elements. Beyond digital technology, rare earths are equally crucial for key sectors such as defense and the ecological transition. Naturally, they will be at the center of geopolitical rivalries between the major […]

According to Aaron Holmes[1], Microsoft is now pitching “Spend less on people”. While AI is certainly the next stage in the long process of optimising human resources in the production apparatus – enabling more to be produced with constant HR – it also means, above all, that humans are going to become increasingly valuable. We […]

Our team is proud to present its self-evaluaiton of the 2024 trends published in January. This year we have recorded a 74.19% success rate. Several events were accurately anticipated from the start of the year: the defection of at least one of the two US presidential candidates, the dissolution of the government in France and […]

As economic and political instability intensifies, our team takes a closer look at the forecasts of the major Western financial institutions. Between optimism and underestimated risks, these reports are as full of lessons as they are surprisingly consistent. Given the growing instability in international economic and political affairs, our team has decided to redouble its […]

The answer that immediately comes to mind is: “China, of course”! But that’s too easy for the GEAB, so we won’t be going down that route in this article. Instead of presenting our hypothesis right away, as we typically do, we prefer to keep you in suspense and take you on a journey. So, what’s […]

The concept of the interregnum has often been used in geopolitics in recent years. The imagery of a leaderless transition, a shift from one form of dominance to another, or the evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar world, all resonate strongly with our current moment. In this context, we apply the concept to a […]

The new technology hubs Emerging markets stand out for their adaptability and technological dynamism. These markets are particularly invested in fintech, e-commerce and e-health. They are focusing on forward-looking sectors to prepare for the economy of tomorrow. An even more digitised economy, where artificial intelligence and robotics will have taken over every part of our […]

New emerging countries are making their mark on the international scene and positioning themselves as strategic markets. They represent the vanguard of growth drivers for a changing global economy, offering investment and diversification opportunities for a growing number of companies. The demographic dynamic, a wake-up call for investment The dynamics of emerging countries[1] are unique […]

In the coming years, the African continent will find itself more isolated than ever. Its relations with the global system and Western countries have reached a point of dysfunction that cannot be surpassed, and these ties are bound to be reexamined. Paradoxically, this situation grants African countries newfound freedom in choosing their alliances, which, magnified […]

While economic conglomerates may be on the decline worldwide, they remain the dominant force for foreign investment in Africa. This overview highlights the most influential structures on the continent, revealing the power strategies and economic confrontations that lie ahead. In our last GEAB issue, we showed that Africa is the major pole of resistance to […]

The triumphant re-election of Donald Trump symbolises the end of the baby-boomer generation’s dominance – their values, economic models and worldview – massively rejected, not just by a large majority of American voters, but also by global public opinion. This response was more supportive of this victory than the Western political and media spheres would […]