Category: finance

The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations…) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? With the US-Russian exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), uncertainties surrounding US-China trade negotiations, the new […]

From a budgetary point of view, this compromise can only lead to a kind of status quo. The institutional architecture will stay close to that drafted by the 2011-2013 reforms that were based on unilateral recoveries in competitiveness. All transfers between states will be conditioned and will do nothing to help rebalance the eurozone. They will […]

Bullion and Jewellery For centuries, gold coins and jewellery have been used as small-scale private investments and, for many people today, they remain a good place to start. It must be noted that new purchases may be subject to VAT and both purchases will carry a considerable mark-up on the daily spot gold price. However, […]

What international role does gold play today and do recent market trends and new avenues for investment reaffirm the case for including gold in a balanced portfolio? With the holiday season over and stock markets around the world still reeling from a volatile end to 2018, many investors will be wondering where best to store […]

Happy New Black Clouds? The standard wishes for a Happy New Year seem almost out of place for many, given the black clouds[1] that seem to be gathering over the economy of the United State of America (US)[2] and the political threats to the economy existing in the European Union (EU).[3] The proximate causes are […]

As every year, LEAP is presenting a brief overview of the major ‘up and down’ trends[1] for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of  our researchers over the last few months, the aim is to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]

It is time to get rid of Western Sovereign Bonds  Following the previous article on the topic of US Treasuries, it seems clear to our team that it is best to avoid US government bonds at the moment. In fact, there are some more reasons we recommend that you sell all your Western states bonds. […]

Gold: Stand still Great caution is required on all fronts now that Mr Trump has been elected as president. This principle will transversally mark every one of our recommendations. The gold price chart continues to tell us that we are correct – against all the intuitions from media experts – because, despite a brief rise […]

17 Up et 16 Down Each year in December, we release an evaluation of our anticipations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 22.5 out of 33 key tendencies, meaning a 68% success, 7 points less than last year (75%). Here is our success rate graphic: The view we […]

General recommendation: Find shelters!  You will understand when reading this issue that the clouds are gathering during the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Take out your umbrellas, raincoats and wellingtons! This is not the first time that we have alerted you this way, but the GEAB is intended to signal […]

Largely criticised by some, glorified by others, cryptocurrencies keep raising questions and represent as many threats as opportunities depending where we stand; whether on the side of citizens, institutions, businesses or governments. After a spectacular rise in valuations, we are currently witnessing a collapse in the capitalisation of most crypto-assets. The euphoria is well behind […]

General strategy: the eye of the storm Like we started warning in our last GEAB issue, the utmost caution is still required these days. The appearance of recovery, here and there, is either the effect of short-term communication, or sources of disruptions with unpredictable consequences (or both). Our general advice is to stay vigilant and […]

Oil – It’s working In spite of many interests that obviously want to minimise the impact of the agreement on oil production between OPEC and its allies, and doubts related to the sustainability of the deal, it seems that Russians and Saudis are planning to extend the Vienna Agreement[1] until – at least – the […]

The anticipation work must watch closely the “weak signals”, as futurists used to call them. They are accessible items of information, but hardly reflected within the media, information which provides relevant insight into major changes in society. Paying attention to those signals, interpreting them and cross-referencing them is part of the work of any decision-maker […]

China’s decision to introduce in 2018 the gold-convertible petro-gazo-Yuan currency is an important step in the process of internationalisation of the Yuan. It confirms the will of Beijing (asserted for a decade already) to impose the Renminbi (official name of the Chinese currency) as new global reference currency. In October 2016 the IMF decided to […]

– European Automobile Industry – The long and winding road
– GM – LOL
– General Electric – Will it fail or not?
– Oil: Seesawing to its death
– Financial market: Ashes to ashes, junk to junk
– Investments – Where does the money go? 
Convinced that the emissions scandal is now behind it, the German automobile industry is ready to restart. VW (Volkswagen), for instance, lined up 440,000 vehicles in October (compared to the 310,000 last August). But two markets are about to escape VW – and not the least important …

Ten years after the Lehman Brothers collapse, the fear of another major financial crisis hasn’t totally disappeared. In a recent forum, Nouriel Roubini, one of the economists who had anticipated the 2007-2008 crisis, announced for 2020 the possibility of a new financial crisis, plunging the global economy into recession. For him, all the ingredients of […]

The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That’s why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB readers the ‘raw’ data of this work in the form of an annotated calendar of upcoming events for the next three or four months. It […]