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The IMF has already started to revise downwards its 2021 growth projections: for the US (from 7 to 6%)[1], Asia (from 7.6 to 6.5%)[2], the Eurozone (from 5.4 to 5%)[3], and the world (from 6 to 5.9%).[4] As seen in our article on the central banks, the Western financial administration is bent on continuing unconventional […]
The First World War was the result of unsurpassable alliances that have become anachronistic. The alliance with America is both outdated and unsurpassable in the 21st century: outdated because the world needs all its actors to work together to solve the immense challenges of the 21st century; unsurpassable because of the series of alliances. The […]
There is no doubt that the collective unconscious of the West feels threatened by an overpopulated humanity. Everything contributes to this diffuse feeling[1] : . The post-pandemic return to life and street crowds suddenly made unbearable by comparison with the calm of the lockdown. . The highlighting of a non-Western world ten times more numerous than […]
Cash, gold, commodities and cryptos – A strong case The above remarks reinforce our recommendations from last March “A short guide for investors in times of reflation/inflation“.[1] A new monetary system will soon be in place where fiat currencies will switch to ultra-fluid “exchange vehicles” such as digital currencies, a real monetary paradigm shift. If […]
The dollar will collapse only if the United States decides to let it collapse. The country is now in a situation where it is getting closer to having to make that decision. Are the current threats of non-raising the debt ceiling designed to warn the world that this time is coming and that everyone must […]
Last August, Bernard Arnault (LVMH) overtook Jeff Bezos (Amazon) as world’s richest person.[1] The luxury giants have performed brilliantly on the stock market.[2] There is a lot of talk about the wealthy getting richer as a result of the Covid crisis as a direct explanation for this trend. But it is no longer the rich […]
Our team is always impressed by the broad vision provided by this exercise in exploring the future of the upcoming major political events. Whilst checking the following elections in Africa, South America and Eastern Europe in particular, we are struck by the gigantic wave of transformation sweeping or about to sweep the global political scene. […]
In 2024, the German military fighter planes that guarantee the country’s role in NATO’s nuclear sharing will be outdated. If this equipment is not replaced, Germany will no longer be able to host US nuclear weapons on its soil. This would be a major break in the transatlantic defence cooperation. Nuclear sharing is one of […]
The new military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) illustrates nothing more than a reheating of the Cold War between China and the West. In this barely concealed confrontation, blocs are beginning to take shape: in the West, an Anglo-Saxon bloc in the midst of an attempt to recompose itself […]
Six years after the announcement of the Brexit, five years after the transatlantic “shock” of Trump’s election, a few months after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, our team anticipates that a New Europe will show up as early as 2022, one that will fully reveal itself from spring/summer on. At its heart, the European defence, which […]
Bitcoin: wait and see // Dollar: last opportunity // Stocks: floating bombs in sight! // Dollar versus tech stocks // Commodities: Bonanza! ______________________________ Bitcoin: wait and see Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin regained its luster over the summer. Governments on holiday gave it a free hand and it was able to follow its natural upward trend as a […]
In a few days, after 16 long years of rule, the ‘royal’ figure of Angela Merkel will no longer dominate Germany. The Chancellor will have conducted her country through a complicated historical period while taking on a role that shouldn’t have been hers: the leader of an EU in the midst of a storm. Calm, […]
To avoid the collapse of the dollar, Biden (as well as Trump before him) is betting on a Keynesian plan to rebuild the country’s infrastructure and social and health care system, designed to bring the billions of foreign investments flowing around the world back to America. To do this, the White House, Congress and the […]
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are back in power and history is picking up where it left off exactly 20 years ago. However, those 20 years of Afghanistan’s mire have occurred, changing the course history would have taken. Wars, terrorism, destruction, displacement, new players, … the whole world had to rush to the bedside of a […]
The historic event of this summer is of course the withdrawal from Afghanistan, a withdrawal in which no one seemed to really believe, despite the decisions taken a year and a half earlier[1]… No one except France, which withdrew its troops last May[2]… proving everything was well planned after all. This event is important enough […]
MULTIPOLARISATION: what is it? Since 2006, the GEAB’s mission has been to analyse the very large systemic transition in which the world is struggling in order to anticipate its next turns and help its readers to make the right adaptation decisions in due time. This work is based on what we call ‘interpretive railways’ that […]
Build Noah’s arks… quickly! As we have seen, there is something eminently Nietzschean about the visions[1] of the future emerging under the Anglo-Saxon revolution, in terms of sex, gender, family and reproduction.[2] Like Nietzsche, they[3] rejected the principles of Christian morality… even if, unlike Nietzsche, they conceived a kind of Christian anti-morality, an inverted Manicheism where […]
When anticipations are being regularly published, as is the case of the GEAB, “the future is already here” is a very innocent phrase. Although, it rarely resonates as eloquently as it does when we speak of the modification of the human genome: acquiring control over the DNA of an unborn person, i.e., controlling the biological […]