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Category: Focus

May-June 2024, Modi’s re-election? A not so easy path for India…

We continue our focus on India with this brief on the 2024 elections. The 543 Members of Parliament representing the 28 states + the 8 Indian territories will be elected. In 2024 Narendra Modi, then 74 years old, will have been at the head of the Indian government for 10 years and will be running […]

Will India be the tomb of the Western economy?

We anticipate that Narendra Modi’s Make in India strategy, fueled by the Anglo-Saxon anti-China strategy, will attract a good number of companies that will remain there – in all senses of the word. In line with our previous article on India, it is appropriate to warn our readers against the “Indian temptation” that is likely […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jan)

Back to reality and the end of the cheap economy //  Bitcoin vs. other cryptos //  Real estate: A slump that can be taken advantage of? //  AI – Invest in your skills //  Elon Musk will most likely be the man of the year: All his companies are worth watching //  Back to reality […]

2024-Ramaphosa is re-elected as coalition President: En route to the African Continental Free Trade Area

Article written by Michael Kahn, an independent adviser on innovation anticipation, policy, monitoring and evaluation. Professor Kahn is honorary Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University and Professor of Practice in the University of Johannesburg, He works with governments, the multilateral organisations, NGOs and higher education. His most recent publications are the UNESCO GO-SPIN Report for Mozambique, a […]

Investments, trends and recommendations: 2023, the perfect storm

Companies: Wave of bankruptcies in sight // Derivatives: 2023, on the way to a subprime giga-crisis // Dollar: Shortage in sight // Lifebuoy: Low potential of diversification // _______________ Companies: Wave of bankruptcies in sight Everyone knows that the Fed’s rate hikes in particular are designed to slow down a pre-COVID19 overheating economy, yet totally […]

A Panorama of weak signals

US/Europe/World – Comparative Stabilities: America’s Advantage In line with our article on the geopolitics of foreign direct investments (FDI), we must say that by using all its tools of power, the United States is currently succeeding in reversing the process of tilting the transatlantic relationship in favour of the EU, something we spotted in 2019 […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (nov)

Wealth management – What should Europeans do? //  Investments – Find the exit //  Tax havens – New horizons //  Real Estate – Save yourselves //  Commodities – Beware //  Paris – Between Emily and Amélie //  Wealth management – What should Europeans do? Between taxes, inflation, low wages, the looming real estate crisis, gold […]

Panorama: It’s time for the emerging markets

As expected, with the mid-terms soon behind us, the Fed is starting to prepare for a slowdown in monetary tightening in December.[1] Goldman Sachs is trying to make it look like inflation will fall in 2023[2] – presumably to encourage the Fed to slow down. Again, the tightening of rates only has a marginal effect […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (oct)

Currencies – Storm warning // Dollar – Earlier than expected // Sterling pound – Forever // Euro – Hard to foresee // Cryptocurrencies – Much ado about nothing // Gold – Towards a simple commodity // Cash – Keep it in mind… // Emerging markets – don’t get locked in // ________________ Currencies – Storm […]

2025-2030: towards the end of the insurances’ omnipotence?

The threats to the profitability of the insurance industry are now forcing its transformation. The consequences will be brutal for policyholders, companies and households, as well as for insurers, whose loss of profitability threatens the sustainability of their business model. This situation will make the insurance sector the perfect contagious element of an economic and […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (sept)

Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks // EUR/USD: the fall continues // China’s property crisis: bankruptcies in sight… // Building materials: shortages are worsening __________________________ Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks The eurozone banking sector, once again shaken to its foundations by the latest scandal, Cum-Ex files[1], is the subject of […]

Balkans 2023: inflation, economic crisis, youth exodus, social tensions… an explosive cocktail!

This article was edited by Pierre-Alix Pajot, a History-Geography teacher, former intern at the French Embassy in Sarajevo. His work focused initially on the integration of Serbia into the European Union and then on the future of Bosnia Herzegovina as a state and its European future. Further on, he was Editor of the International Journal […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jun)

Gold, Bitcoin: Focus on traditional investments // Yen, the first pawn to fall? // End of combustion engines in 2035 // Oil: The rise continues Gold, Bitcoin: Focus on traditional investments For the markets, a (long) period of mistrust and uncertainty is definitely setting in. Between inflation and rising rates, against a backdrop of heightened […]

Geopolitical weak signals : Trends in a changing world

BRICS + While the European continent seems to be living in tune with the delivery of arms to Ukraine and the political shockwaves caused by the conflict in our societies, this war is not having the same impact on other parts of the globe. The United States’ cries would have brought the world’s states to […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (May)

Financial markets: Back to reality // Cryptos: Seizing opportunities // Art Market: Options for all types of buyers // Lithium: Mining and processing, two different investments //  ______________________ Financial markets: Back to reality Netflix’s recent setbacks[1] in the financial markets and Saudi Aramco’s performance in overtaking Apple[2] as the world’s largest market capitalisation are two […]

Post-Midterms USA 2022-2024: The Emperor’s New Clothes

Congress is an important part of a well-oiled political system, and many of its features (like the support for America’s endless wars) are bi-partisan or uniparty. But the DC system has, for a long time, been in an existential crisis which has led America to experience a populist alternative for four years with the election […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Apr 2022)

Bitcoin & co continues to grow // Gold: Big uncertainties are favouring historical solutions // Property prices: Amsterdam, Paris, Stockholm, Zurich, Munich, Frankfurt at the end of the line // Norway: Market listing is not always the best option // _______________________ Bitcoin&co continues to grow The acceptance of Bitcoin, and more broadly of the various […]

Calendar of the future (April-September): The world keeps turning…

In these times of crisis, it is difficult to follow a calendar of the future, as international and national agendas are so overwhelmed by fresh news. On the one hand, the Ukrainian crisis is cutting off all meetings, mainly on the American and European sides, whose agendas are jostling for solutions at summits and crisis […]