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Category: Focus

Water Wars 2025: The Geopolitics of Europe’s resources

Climate change has been shifting our relationship with water, bringing power and politics into human rights issues of access and management, because the powerless is particularly hit by this. Besides the question of access to safe water for domestic use, it is also a matter of sovereignty over the landscape.[1] Water also serves many purposes […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Mar)

Last safe haven investment: the earth is the limit // June 2023: From war in Ukraine to a “pax americana-sinica”? // Gas: The future of oil // New Tech 2023: We are starting to reach the limits of Web2 // _________________ Last safe haven investment: the earth Two and a half years ago, we announced […]

Eyes on the future: “We are living through the last decade of the Oil Age”

The following article is the result of discussions between the GEAB editorial team and Dr Louis Arnoux. The latter’s work is far more alarmist than most research in the same field, namely the future of the oil industry and oil as a fuel for the world economy. The results and data discussed below, even though […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Febr)

Real estate: Never release the prey for the shade // Oil: Bottleneck in sight! // Web3: Place your bets // Where to set up what type of business, according to GEAB (advice for European entrepreneurs) // ________________ Real estate: Never release the prey for the shade In a previous bulletin, we recommended letting go of […]

May-June 2024, Modi’s re-election? A not so easy path for India…

We continue our focus on India with this brief on the 2024 elections. The 543 Members of Parliament representing the 28 states + the 8 Indian territories will be elected. In 2024 Narendra Modi, then 74 years old, will have been at the head of the Indian government for 10 years and will be running […]

Will India be the tomb of the Western economy?

We anticipate that Narendra Modi’s Make in India strategy, fueled by the Anglo-Saxon anti-China strategy, will attract a good number of companies that will remain there – in all senses of the word. In line with our previous article on India, it is appropriate to warn our readers against the “Indian temptation” that is likely […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jan)

Back to reality and the end of the cheap economy //  Bitcoin vs. other cryptos //  Real estate: A slump that can be taken advantage of? //  AI – Invest in your skills //  Elon Musk will most likely be the man of the year: All his companies are worth watching //  Back to reality […]

2024-Ramaphosa is re-elected as coalition President: En route to the African Continental Free Trade Area

Article written by Michael Kahn, an independent adviser on innovation anticipation, policy, monitoring and evaluation. Professor Kahn is honorary Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University and Professor of Practice in the University of Johannesburg, He works with governments, the multilateral organisations, NGOs and higher education. His most recent publications are the UNESCO GO-SPIN Report for Mozambique, a […]

Investments, trends and recommendations: 2023, the perfect storm

Companies: Wave of bankruptcies in sight // Derivatives: 2023, on the way to a subprime giga-crisis // Dollar: Shortage in sight // Lifebuoy: Low potential of diversification // _______________ Companies: Wave of bankruptcies in sight Everyone knows that the Fed’s rate hikes in particular are designed to slow down a pre-COVID19 overheating economy, yet totally […]

A Panorama of weak signals

US/Europe/World – Comparative Stabilities: America’s Advantage In line with our article on the geopolitics of foreign direct investments (FDI), we must say that by using all its tools of power, the United States is currently succeeding in reversing the process of tilting the transatlantic relationship in favour of the EU, something we spotted in 2019 […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (nov)

Wealth management – What should Europeans do? //  Investments – Find the exit //  Tax havens – New horizons //  Real Estate – Save yourselves //  Commodities – Beware //  Paris – Between Emily and Amélie //  Wealth management – What should Europeans do? Between taxes, inflation, low wages, the looming real estate crisis, gold […]

Panorama: It’s time for the emerging markets

As expected, with the mid-terms soon behind us, the Fed is starting to prepare for a slowdown in monetary tightening in December.[1] Goldman Sachs is trying to make it look like inflation will fall in 2023[2] – presumably to encourage the Fed to slow down. Again, the tightening of rates only has a marginal effect […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (oct)

Currencies – Storm warning // Dollar – Earlier than expected // Sterling pound – Forever // Euro – Hard to foresee // Cryptocurrencies – Much ado about nothing // Gold – Towards a simple commodity // Cash – Keep it in mind… // Emerging markets – don’t get locked in // ________________ Currencies – Storm […]

2025-2030: towards the end of the insurances’ omnipotence?

The threats to the profitability of the insurance industry are now forcing its transformation. The consequences will be brutal for policyholders, companies and households, as well as for insurers, whose loss of profitability threatens the sustainability of their business model. This situation will make the insurance sector the perfect contagious element of an economic and […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (sept)

Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks // EUR/USD: the fall continues // China’s property crisis: bankruptcies in sight… // Building materials: shortages are worsening __________________________ Stock market: storm in sight for banking stocks The eurozone banking sector, once again shaken to its foundations by the latest scandal, Cum-Ex files[1], is the subject of […]

Balkans 2023: inflation, economic crisis, youth exodus, social tensions… an explosive cocktail!

This article was edited by Pierre-Alix Pajot, a History-Geography teacher, former intern at the French Embassy in Sarajevo. His work focused initially on the integration of Serbia into the European Union and then on the future of Bosnia Herzegovina as a state and its European future. Further on, he was Editor of the International Journal […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jun)

Gold, Bitcoin: Focus on traditional investments // Yen, the first pawn to fall? // End of combustion engines in 2035 // Oil: The rise continues Gold, Bitcoin: Focus on traditional investments For the markets, a (long) period of mistrust and uncertainty is definitely setting in. Between inflation and rising rates, against a backdrop of heightened […]

Geopolitical weak signals : Trends in a changing world

BRICS + While the European continent seems to be living in tune with the delivery of arms to Ukraine and the political shockwaves caused by the conflict in our societies, this war is not having the same impact on other parts of the globe. The United States’ cries would have brought the world’s states to […]