Category: Focus

A reminder that our recommendations are not for speculative purposes, therefore short-term, that they don’t aim to win more, but rather to lose less (even nothing) because in the case of a global systemic crisis like the one we are currently seeing, it’s the only rational objective. – Gold-Cryptor: patience! – Cryptocurrencies: a blank year […]

Have you noticed that all the efforts to regulate debt, derivatives, banks etc., made following the subprime crisis and meeting with varying degrees of success over the last ten years, are currently systematically undermined, including by the most serious players in the financial system? Here are some examples: On the public debt side, the United […]

In 2014, in the context of the partly energy-motivated Ukrainian crisis, European citizens became aware that 63 years after the signing of the ECSC Treaty (which, forming the basis of a coal and steel union, was the starting point for the European project) there was no Energy Union in Europe. The price of Russian gas, […]

Of course, there is this temptation of reverting to national or regional levels. However, there is also the Internet that connects the world lastingly. As a matter of fact globalized human society is trying to find solutions between maintaining open participation in the world, refocusing on regions of economic activity, reinventing national added value, and […]

Bullion and Jewellery For centuries, gold coins and jewellery have been used as small-scale private investments and, for many people today, they remain a good place to start. It must be noted that new purchases may be subject to VAT and both purchases will carry a considerable mark-up on the daily spot gold price. However, […]

What international role does gold play today and do recent market trends and new avenues for investment reaffirm the case for including gold in a balanced portfolio? With the holiday season over and stock markets around the world still reeling from a volatile end to 2018, many investors will be wondering where best to store […]

It is time to get rid of Western Sovereign Bonds  Following the previous article on the topic of US Treasuries, it seems clear to our team that it is best to avoid US government bonds at the moment. In fact, there are some more reasons we recommend that you sell all your Western states bonds. […]

Gold: Stand still Great caution is required on all fronts now that Mr Trump has been elected as president. This principle will transversally mark every one of our recommendations. The gold price chart continues to tell us that we are correct – against all the intuitions from media experts – because, despite a brief rise […]

17 Up et 16 Down Each year in December, we release an evaluation of our anticipations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 22.5 out of 33 key tendencies, meaning a 68% success, 7 points less than last year (75%). Here is our success rate graphic: The view we […]

General recommendation: Find shelters!  You will understand when reading this issue that the clouds are gathering during the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Take out your umbrellas, raincoats and wellingtons! This is not the first time that we have alerted you this way, but the GEAB is intended to signal […]

Largely criticised by some, glorified by others, cryptocurrencies keep raising questions and represent as many threats as opportunities depending where we stand; whether on the side of citizens, institutions, businesses or governments. After a spectacular rise in valuations, we are currently witnessing a collapse in the capitalisation of most crypto-assets. The euphoria is well behind […]

Infrastructure versus sovereign bonds We have repeatedly emphasised this before: Donald Trump’s campaign promises and the probable launch of “fiscal QEs” in Europe and in the US, offer a bright future for infrastructure investments. There is no doubt that construction companies have a fabulous opportunity here and will benefit from it. Any investment in this […]

Currencies: Watch out, Turbulence Ahead The currency market is particularly dangerous this year: with a dollar which has strengthened whilst Trump needs a weak currency and will do everything possible to achieve the goal; a yuan which risks at any moment to be devalued, authoritatively as we have seen, while its medium-term movement is on […]

Euro: keep believing in it! The LEAP team now believes that the more we are told about the difficulties of the euro, the more we must hear “course change needed” rather than “end of the euro coming”. Euro exit threats are mostly brandished as part of the haggling and bargaining kind of negotiations currently taking […]

General strategy: the eye of the storm Like we started warning in our last GEAB issue, the utmost caution is still required these days. The appearance of recovery, here and there, is either the effect of short-term communication, or sources of disruptions with unpredictable consequences (or both). Our general advice is to stay vigilant and […]

Euro-diversification As part of our forecasts mentioned above on the probable reform of the common currency, we recommend people to “diversify their euros” simply by placing part of any liquid savings in euros in banks from various countries of the monetary zone. With online banks, all this is transparent, extremely quick and free of charges […]

Oil – It’s working In spite of many interests that obviously want to minimise the impact of the agreement on oil production between OPEC and its allies, and doubts related to the sustainability of the deal, it seems that Russians and Saudis are planning to extend the Vienna Agreement[1] until – at least – the […]

Oil: counter-direction The day the coalition around Saudi Arabia announced a cut of diplomatic relations with Qatar, risking the “koweitisation” of the latter, the oil prices… collapsed. This is not the first time we have noticed that outbreaks of conflict are no longer causing price surges. This fact validates the axes we have been following […]