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Category: world

Editorial: How the Ukrainian crisis is precipitating the arrival of a new global Middle Ages

It is not a bipolar world that will result from the current war between the West and Russia, but the collapse of 500 years of Eurocentric global civilisation, at the core of which we see Europe, Russia and Ukraine mainly. This will have the US, China and the rest of the world involved not necessarily […]

Russia-Ukraine: What new world order are we heading for?

Among the few certainties to be formulated about the Russian-Ukrainian war, there is this one: it is the end of the Cold War! … in that it has now become “hot”, which mainly changes everything. As we have already said about the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan last September[1], 1989 was not “the end” […]

CBDC 2020-2025: A timeline of the global shift to digital currency

This geographical timeline and ranking has been developed primarily on the basis of researches carried out by the Atlantic Council (CBDC Tracker) and Madhvi Mavadiya (published in finextra). Based on this data, we have attempted to position the prospects of central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects over time. The creation of a digital currency essentially […]

2022-2025 – Global Monetary Dislocation

The monetary paradigm shift initiated around 2014 by China as part of the dual trend of “multipolarisation + digitalisation” is now launched at full speed. The followed paths are various, leading mid-term (2022-2025) to a global monetary dislocation with four main categories mentioned further below. The end of capital immobilisation The economy needs consumers. States […]

Assessment of our anticipations for 2021: 77% success rate

As we noted last year, the health crisis has accelerated all the systemic transformation projects that had been languishing hopelessly in the back of drawers of our governments and companies paralysed by routine. The GEAB’s job is to study trends, prospects for change and strategies that decision-makers are putting in place to prepare for them, […]

Future Briefs: World Politics 2022 – The de-populist wave continues

As you may have noticed, the last “populists” on the planet are all in trouble. They are no longer in fashion obviously. The new generations propelled to the forefront of post-Covid shock societies do not recognise themselves in the populists. Opposition is better organised. This is what we said two months ago about Eastern Europe, […]

Global Humanitarian Crisis 2020-2030: From eliminating Poverty to eliminating the Poor

There is no doubt that the collective unconscious of the West feels threatened by an overpopulated humanity. Everything contributes to this diffuse feeling[1] : . The post-pandemic return to life and street crowds suddenly made unbearable by comparison with the calm of the lockdown. . The highlighting of a non-Western world ten times more numerous than […]

Luxury: A future-proof business model

Last August, Bernard Arnault (LVMH) overtook Jeff Bezos (Amazon) as world’s richest person.[1]  The luxury giants have performed brilliantly on the stock market.[2] There is a lot of talk about the wealthy getting richer as a result of the Covid crisis as a direct explanation for this trend. But it is no longer the rich […]

Sexuality 21 – And Sex Became Art…

The differentiation between sex and reproduction, characteristic of human beings, is not new. Indeed, if humans have learned to control their fertility, they have never been fully able to control their sexual impulses… We can even consider that the more they have tried to control them, the more “bizarre” they have become from nature’s point […]

Global political scene 2021-2025: Welcome to the “tech-politics” era

Trump was the seal of the populists’ era born in the wake of the gigantic crises of the last decade: Putin, Erdogan, Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson… More fear than harm in the end. Yet, a new era is beginning, the nature of which Israel has just indicated, as anticipated by us: the techno-radicals are here. Enough […]

A timeline of the UK trade negotiations

The concept of Global Britain was formulated in the early months following the 2016 referendum on the UK’s decision to exit the EU. Theresa May and her teams have been using it as an umbrella term for the country’s aspirations to strengthen its global (and European) influence once separated from the 27 member states. In […]

Global Britain-China 2021-2024: The fundamental systemic rivalry

As Biden puts the kibosh on US anti-China rhetoric – by reversing Trump’s actions against TikTok and WeChat,[1] for example – our team anticipates that a far more fundamental systemic rivalry will soon become evident: that between the UK and China. And make no mistake: the forces at play are far less unbalanced than they […]

Iron ore 2026: Guinea at the core of the emergence of a new market

The price of the 2nd most traded commodity (oil being number one[1]) is soaring. At a time of recovery and infrastructure plans, and illustrating the “back to basics” trend, iron ore is the object of all sorts of lusts. While some incumbent interests prefer to optimise their margins by letting prices rise, others are working […]

2025-2030: Back to “nuclear reason”

To tackle a subject as complex as energy, the LEAP teams called on the collective intelligence of the GEAB, through the GEAB Café of 20 April, and the active participation of Greg de Temmerman and other discreet contributors, whom we warmly thank for assistance. If you wish to also take part in this type of […]

Future Energy Technology – A Timeline

Our universe is an ever-changing web of abundant energy, it is a central aspect of life and all human activity. Yet if we see energy through the lens of our economic activity, it appears as a limited commodity. In this future energy technology timeline, we wish to cast a look at the current energy transition, […]

Energy, raw materials: Will there be enough for everyone?

The post-Covid world is multipolar, with at least three of the major poles competing for mineral resources and industrial production. Until recently, this competition was mainly reserved for the western poles – the United States and Europe. But a third continent has joined those two: Asia. The trend is inexorable. For the past 20 years, […]

The EU as a confidence builder between the US and China: Some simplistic recommendations for European leaders

Faced with the immense challenges that the US-China confrontation poses to the world, Europe must be aware that it is not a negligible player, that it must publicly state its specific interests (peace, prosperity, autonomy), and build a strategy aimed at not getting trapped in the wars of others, following one guideline: to base the […]

2025 – The day the world will drop the West for China…

In the US-China war trap which has deepened in recent years, with Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House and his strategy of rallying a camp of “allies” around America in order to “contain” Chinese power,[1] Europeans may be tempted to believe that the Western camp will eventually win. This feeling is reinforced by the […]