Home Les bulletins GEAB GEAB 133 Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel

GEAB 133

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Mar 2019

Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel.

Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in French presents six districts. The Golan (in green) and the Palestinian Territories (Gaza Strip and West Bank, in dark pink) are dissociated from Israel (in light pink). The Wikipedia in Hebrew presents seven districts. The additional district, named Ezor Yehuda VeShomron (Judea and Samaria), corresponds to the West Bank. The northern district also includes the Golan. The whole is presented as forming Israel. The Gaza Strip is excluded from the territory.

But first, a cautionary note…

We know how sensitive the topic of Israel is and we thought twice before publishing this analysis. That said, it is impossible to pretend to shed light on the future if we keep topics out of discussion, especially those that are central like the Middle East and Israel. We are therefore going to list an impressive series of occurrences which, in our opinion, are converging towards the epilogue of the long process of creating the State of Israel, hoping we’ll not offend anyone. If a certain cynicism can be sensed from our description, it will be less our own than that of History itself, which has no use for morality. This anticipation is in line with those we made in December 2017 (Israel-Palestine: Somewhere between dream and nightmare[1]) and May 2018 (Middle East: Towards peace with no losers [2]). In those two articles, we set out a series of observations suggesting that it would not be long before the Middle East began to emerge from the huge paralysis provoked by the paradoxical injunction of a schizophrenic international community after the Six Day War in 1967: A war won by Israel, a victory rejected by the international community, territories not returned to the Palestinians. Effectively, a stalemate.

We also noted that Israel would never let go of the Jordan and therefore the West Bank and the Golan Heights. And, finally, we asserted that the regional game changer was the voicing of Saudi support for Israel, embodying (or purporting to embody) the Arab nations’ fatigue with the Palestinian cause. At the time, we foresaw the principles of a strategy that could potentially bring about a peaceful creation of Greater Israel – a strategy that we thought had a chance of success given the power of its sponsors: The United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

This strategy was struck down in mid-flight by the Khashoggi affair: Trump has still not been able to put forward his peace plan,[3] Saudi Arabia has regained its place among the dark powers of the world and the Iranian regime is still holding its ground. The scenario we are seeing now is a much more brutal Plan B, still supported by the US, but mostly led by Israel itself and the group of Arab countries it has managed to rally to its cause, led by Saudi Arabia. This plan seems extremely well prepared, judging from this series of observations that we can’t help but link to one another:

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