Category: europe
Ukrainian refugees now live in Europe under a special status called temporary protection, modelled after a similar status created by the US at the end of the Cold War. While this status offers them privileged benefits, it also exacerbates the difficulties Europe faces, which we illustrate with a deep dive into the German situation. This […]
US/Europe/World – Comparative Stabilities: America’s Advantage In line with our article on the geopolitics of foreign direct investments (FDI), we must say that by using all its tools of power, the United States is currently succeeding in reversing the process of tilting the transatlantic relationship in favour of the EU, something we spotted in 2019 […]
Belgium sets out ten ambitions for a path and a horizon (2030) “with the aim of contributing to Belgian and European digital sovereignty”.[1] We decided to take a quick look at this vision, because we see it as a weak signal of European ownership, on a national and supranational scale. Belgium is an influential nation […]
In the most troubled times, our method of political anticipation leads us to return to future facts and to broaden our vision. To see more clearly, we need our traditional calendar of future events. There is so much to say that we have chosen to restrict ourselves to the European continent and the Americas. We […]
For our traditional dive into the archives in August, we have logically chosen the major theme of this year 2022: the entry of Russian forces in Ukraine. The interest of this exercise is primordial to our work of anticipation, and it makes more sense on such a burning subject. As we mentioned in our March […]
Young, even infant, the space market has grown by 70% since 2010 and is expected to reach a trillion dollars in annual revenues by 2040.[1] One might think that the space economy would one day become normal, like the car economy, but that would be to navigate like a sorcerer’s apprentice. Three words sum up […]
In these times of crisis, it is difficult to follow a calendar of the future, as international and national agendas are so overwhelmed by fresh news. On the one hand, the Ukrainian crisis is cutting off all meetings, mainly on the American and European sides, whose agendas are jostling for solutions at summits and crisis […]
Agriculture is bad. Cow farts and meat are not good for the climate[1]; animals suffer; not only do farmers use too many pesticides, but they also get too much money from the EU and are destroying the Amazonian lungs of the planet; more humans need to be fed and prices for food items are going […]
There’s nothing very original to say about the French election. Nevertheless… For over a year, our references of the upcoming presidential election have allowed us to see the arrival of this new “identitarian” political movement, embodied today by Zemmour, who is aptly riding the wave born of the societal storms of the last 15 years… […]
As we noted last year, the health crisis has accelerated all the systemic transformation projects that had been languishing hopelessly in the back of drawers of our governments and companies paralysed by routine. The GEAB’s job is to study trends, prospects for change and strategies that decision-makers are putting in place to prepare for them, […]
In Germany, three parties have just successfully created a new government in record time through the signing of a coalition treaty[1] and the election of Scholz by the Bundestag. Our team wishes to share a selection of highlights from this 177-page text as they are formulated. Indeed it is an important “brick of the future” […]
The shadow of Web3 is now looming on the horizon.[1] It is already presenting itself as a new revolution, 25 years after the arrival of the Internet, from which our societies are only just beginning to recover. A new stage of decentralisation and disintermediation, a reaffirmation of Internet user’s freedoms (robbed by Web 2.0 and […]
The First World War was the result of unsurpassable alliances that have become anachronistic. The alliance with America is both outdated and unsurpassable in the 21st century: outdated because the world needs all its actors to work together to solve the immense challenges of the 21st century; unsurpassable because of the series of alliances. The […]
Six years after the announcement of the Brexit, five years after the transatlantic “shock” of Trump’s election, a few months after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, our team anticipates that a New Europe will show up as early as 2022, one that will fully reveal itself from spring/summer on. At its heart, the European defence, which […]
In a few days, after 16 long years of rule, the ‘royal’ figure of Angela Merkel will no longer dominate Germany. The Chancellor will have conducted her country through a complicated historical period while taking on a role that shouldn’t have been hers: the leader of an EU in the midst of a storm. Calm, […]
MULTIPOLARISATION: what is it? Since 2006, the GEAB’s mission has been to analyse the very large systemic transition in which the world is struggling in order to anticipate its next turns and help its readers to make the right adaptation decisions in due time. This work is based on what we call ‘interpretive railways’ that […]
The Espana 2050[1] project, presented by the Sanchez government on the 20th of May, brings together, in the form of 9 challenges, 50 objectives and 200 proposals,[2] a set of reform measures in the fields of education, healthcare, taxes, employment, pensions and environment, setting out the framework for a 30-year national strategy for Spain.[3] Produced […]
One piece of business news with political significance: French and Italian media giants Vivendi (Bolloré) and Mediaset (Berlusconi) are throwing in the towel on their differences, each going their own way.[1] The end of the feud allows the Italian group to move forward with its great ambition: the Media for Europe project[2], merging its Italian […]