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There’s nothing very original to say about the French election. Nevertheless… For over a year, our references of the upcoming presidential election have allowed us to see the arrival of this new “identitarian” political movement, embodied today by Zemmour, who is aptly riding the wave born of the societal storms of the last 15 years… […]
This geographical timeline and ranking has been developed primarily on the basis of researches carried out by the Atlantic Council (CBDC Tracker) and Madhvi Mavadiya (published in finextra). Based on this data, we have attempted to position the prospects of central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects over time. The creation of a digital currency essentially […]
The Fed published last month a timid report assessing the risks and opportunities of developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC).[1] The document, marked by caution and patience, insisted that it was by no means a launch announcement and that nothing would be undertaken without clear and strong government and public support. With sharp divisions […]
The monetary paradigm shift initiated around 2014 by China as part of the dual trend of “multipolarisation + digitalisation” is now launched at full speed. The followed paths are various, leading mid-term (2022-2025) to a global monetary dislocation with four main categories mentioned further below. The end of capital immobilisation The economy needs consumers. States […]
Investments – The voice of reason In view of our booklet of trends and all the points of uncertainty we have identified, we would urge you to be careful about the two most extreme segments of the economy: hyper-innovation and zombie economics. When it comes to commodities, currencies, countries or companies, avoid betting everything on […]
China’s economy weakened further in August 2021 after a fresh Covid outbreak curbed consumer spending[1]. To relaunch the economy after the Covid-19 crisis, the country continued its old-style supply boost by starting state sponsored projects and reinforcing factories to produce more and more. Yet, as data has shown, internal demand in China has not risen […]
Between the film Ready Player One and the thunderous announcements of Facebook’s name change to Meta, the obedient public of the future (that we are) could end up imagining a soon-to-be scenario where we would all be connected 24/24 through 3D headphones, locked in Mr Zuckerberg’s Metaverse, circulating under the Meta label from our job […]
A cluster of major trends 2022 is shaping up to be a complicated year… After the great pause of 2020, 2021 tried to make it look like things would return to normal. Instead, as we anticipated at the beginning of last year, every hint of recovery has led to new fractures in the old system: […]
Dear readers, A new year is beginning, the sixteenth anniversary of the GEAB, and the team believes that the bulletin should now be declared of public utility. At a time when mental health is faltering throughout the West, under the new shock of societal transformation causing loss of bearings and meaning, the GEAB seems to […]
Economy: Fleeing into the virtual // Prices are rising while growth is not forthcoming and commodity prices are no longer even contributing to inflation. The quality of products and services is decreasing. The points of growth are running away towards a decentralised e-economy linked to the first steps of the Web 3.0. Will this e-economy […]
As we noted last year, the health crisis has accelerated all the systemic transformation projects that had been languishing hopelessly in the back of drawers of our governments and companies paralysed by routine. The GEAB’s job is to study trends, prospects for change and strategies that decision-makers are putting in place to prepare for them, […]
In Germany, three parties have just successfully created a new government in record time through the signing of a coalition treaty[1] and the election of Scholz by the Bundestag. Our team wishes to share a selection of highlights from this 177-page text as they are formulated. Indeed it is an important “brick of the future” […]
As you may have noticed, the last “populists” on the planet are all in trouble. They are no longer in fashion obviously. The new generations propelled to the forefront of post-Covid shock societies do not recognise themselves in the populists. Opposition is better organised. This is what we said two months ago about Eastern Europe, […]
Elon Musk has just been named Man of the year.[1] Yet the SpaceX empire faces a new threat: a technological disruption. His promises have become a global communication success, reaching right up to the highest levels of power. However, they come up against technical reality, like any promise of innovation. Space is Hard: it applies […]
The shadow of Web3 is now looming on the horizon.[1] It is already presenting itself as a new revolution, 25 years after the arrival of the Internet, from which our societies are only just beginning to recover. A new stage of decentralisation and disintermediation, a reaffirmation of Internet user’s freedoms (robbed by Web 2.0 and […]
Bitcoin – Salvad’orisation Bukele, the young president of San Salvador, is rubbing his hands together at the rise in value of Bitcoin, which he adopted as his country’s official currency on September 7th. This unprecedented decision is turning the small country into an experimental lab, and specialists are flocking to observe and advise. The president’s […]
A new generation of traders has arrived in 2020 during the successive lockdowns. Although it does not change the rules of the game in the financial markets, it reveals a perception of the economy (macro and micro) that is very different from those of its elders. Thanks to the disintermediation of information and access to […]
The Covid crisis has put all central banks to the test, especially the European and American ones, which carry a significant share of the weight of the world economy on their shoulders. With inflation taking hold and growth timidly recovering, choices must be made. The ECB seems to have already made up its mind: keep […]