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It is not a bipolar world that will result from the current war between the West and Russia, but the collapse of 500 years of Eurocentric global civilisation, at the core of which we see Europe, Russia and Ukraine mainly. This will have the US, China and the rest of the world involved not necessarily […]
Commodities – Questioning our certainties // Energy – Market fragmentation // Cryptocurrencies – Counterintuition // Dollar – Transmutation // Real Estate – Attention // Art – “Beauty will save the world” (Dostoyevsky) // Commodities – Questioning our certainties Energy and commodities are already at their highest point and, in our opinion, with no real room […]
If we observe Peter Thiel today, his networks, his ideology and his levers of influence, we get a glimpse of a certain American Republican party planning to run in the 2024 elections.[1] The wealthy Silicon Valley investor and early Trump supporter has recently put aside some of his business roles, notably inside Meta, to focus […]
In 1450, Gutenberg invented the printing press and published his first Bible. 100 years later, the Council of Trent invented the “index librorum prohibitorum”.[1] In between, Luther initiated the reform movement of the Catholic Church. 500 years later, in 1995, the West invented the Internet. Twenty years later, as a result of a multi-directional questioning […]
In the middle of a storm, it is difficult to keep one’s eyes on the horizon. Instead, you see the sky pitching, you hear the sails slamming, you get the spray in your face, everyone screams their fears and angers, and this translates in losing one’s grounding. This is how we should understand the uproar […]
Among the few certainties to be formulated about the Russian-Ukrainian war, there is this one: it is the end of the Cold War! … in that it has now become “hot”, which mainly changes everything. As we have already said about the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan last September[1], 1989 was not “the end” […]
As Russians and Americans clash on both sides of the EU’s Eastern borders, let us summarise our analysis of the strategy being carried out and the objectives being pursued. In our opinion, a game is being played around Ukraine to move the lines of the trap into which everyone fell in 2014 and which represents […]
Meta/Facebook: Complications in sight Mark Zuckerberg’s life has never been more complicated. Even he is questioning his free advertising-based model[1] and is moving towards a Netflix-like model. Officially, he is facing a crossfire of regulations, a shrinking subscriptions base, the arrival of Web3 challenging all his fundamentals, and more recently the loss of a quarter […]
Agriculture is bad. Cow farts and meat are not good for the climate[1]; animals suffer; not only do farmers use too many pesticides, but they also get too much money from the EU and are destroying the Amazonian lungs of the planet; more humans need to be fed and prices for food items are going […]
There’s nothing very original to say about the French election. Nevertheless… For over a year, our references of the upcoming presidential election have allowed us to see the arrival of this new “identitarian” political movement, embodied today by Zemmour, who is aptly riding the wave born of the societal storms of the last 15 years… […]
This geographical timeline and ranking has been developed primarily on the basis of researches carried out by the Atlantic Council (CBDC Tracker) and Madhvi Mavadiya (published in finextra). Based on this data, we have attempted to position the prospects of central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects over time. The creation of a digital currency essentially […]
The Fed published last month a timid report assessing the risks and opportunities of developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC).[1] The document, marked by caution and patience, insisted that it was by no means a launch announcement and that nothing would be undertaken without clear and strong government and public support. With sharp divisions […]
The monetary paradigm shift initiated around 2014 by China as part of the dual trend of “multipolarisation + digitalisation” is now launched at full speed. The followed paths are various, leading mid-term (2022-2025) to a global monetary dislocation with four main categories mentioned further below. The end of capital immobilisation The economy needs consumers. States […]
Investments – The voice of reason In view of our booklet of trends and all the points of uncertainty we have identified, we would urge you to be careful about the two most extreme segments of the economy: hyper-innovation and zombie economics. When it comes to commodities, currencies, countries or companies, avoid betting everything on […]
China’s economy weakened further in August 2021 after a fresh Covid outbreak curbed consumer spending[1]. To relaunch the economy after the Covid-19 crisis, the country continued its old-style supply boost by starting state sponsored projects and reinforcing factories to produce more and more. Yet, as data has shown, internal demand in China has not risen […]
Between the film Ready Player One and the thunderous announcements of Facebook’s name change to Meta, the obedient public of the future (that we are) could end up imagining a soon-to-be scenario where we would all be connected 24/24 through 3D headphones, locked in Mr Zuckerberg’s Metaverse, circulating under the Meta label from our job […]
A cluster of major trends 2022 is shaping up to be a complicated year… After the great pause of 2020, 2021 tried to make it look like things would return to normal. Instead, as we anticipated at the beginning of last year, every hint of recovery has led to new fractures in the old system: […]
Dear readers, A new year is beginning, the sixteenth anniversary of the GEAB, and the team believes that the bulletin should now be declared of public utility. At a time when mental health is faltering throughout the West, under the new shock of societal transformation causing loss of bearings and meaning, the GEAB seems to […]