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Economy: Fleeing into the virtual // Prices are rising while growth is not forthcoming and commodity prices are no longer even contributing to inflation. The quality of products and services is decreasing. The points of growth are running away towards a decentralised e-economy linked to the first steps of the Web 3.0. Will this e-economy […]
As we noted last year, the health crisis has accelerated all the systemic transformation projects that had been languishing hopelessly in the back of drawers of our governments and companies paralysed by routine. The GEAB’s job is to study trends, prospects for change and strategies that decision-makers are putting in place to prepare for them, […]
In Germany, three parties have just successfully created a new government in record time through the signing of a coalition treaty[1] and the election of Scholz by the Bundestag. Our team wishes to share a selection of highlights from this 177-page text as they are formulated. Indeed it is an important “brick of the future” […]
As you may have noticed, the last “populists” on the planet are all in trouble. They are no longer in fashion obviously. The new generations propelled to the forefront of post-Covid shock societies do not recognise themselves in the populists. Opposition is better organised. This is what we said two months ago about Eastern Europe, […]
Elon Musk has just been named Man of the year.[1] Yet the SpaceX empire faces a new threat: a technological disruption. His promises have become a global communication success, reaching right up to the highest levels of power. However, they come up against technical reality, like any promise of innovation. Space is Hard: it applies […]
The shadow of Web3 is now looming on the horizon.[1] It is already presenting itself as a new revolution, 25 years after the arrival of the Internet, from which our societies are only just beginning to recover. A new stage of decentralisation and disintermediation, a reaffirmation of Internet user’s freedoms (robbed by Web 2.0 and […]
Bitcoin – Salvad’orisation Bukele, the young president of San Salvador, is rubbing his hands together at the rise in value of Bitcoin, which he adopted as his country’s official currency on September 7th. This unprecedented decision is turning the small country into an experimental lab, and specialists are flocking to observe and advise. The president’s […]
A new generation of traders has arrived in 2020 during the successive lockdowns. Although it does not change the rules of the game in the financial markets, it reveals a perception of the economy (macro and micro) that is very different from those of its elders. Thanks to the disintermediation of information and access to […]
The Covid crisis has put all central banks to the test, especially the European and American ones, which carry a significant share of the weight of the world economy on their shoulders. With inflation taking hold and growth timidly recovering, choices must be made. The ECB seems to have already made up its mind: keep […]
The IMF has already started to revise downwards its 2021 growth projections: for the US (from 7 to 6%)[1], Asia (from 7.6 to 6.5%)[2], the Eurozone (from 5.4 to 5%)[3], and the world (from 6 to 5.9%).[4] As seen in our article on the central banks, the Western financial administration is bent on continuing unconventional […]
The First World War was the result of unsurpassable alliances that have become anachronistic. The alliance with America is both outdated and unsurpassable in the 21st century: outdated because the world needs all its actors to work together to solve the immense challenges of the 21st century; unsurpassable because of the series of alliances. The […]
There is no doubt that the collective unconscious of the West feels threatened by an overpopulated humanity. Everything contributes to this diffuse feeling[1] : . The post-pandemic return to life and street crowds suddenly made unbearable by comparison with the calm of the lockdown. . The highlighting of a non-Western world ten times more numerous than […]
Cash, gold, commodities and cryptos – A strong case The above remarks reinforce our recommendations from last March “A short guide for investors in times of reflation/inflation“.[1] A new monetary system will soon be in place where fiat currencies will switch to ultra-fluid “exchange vehicles” such as digital currencies, a real monetary paradigm shift. If […]
The dollar will collapse only if the United States decides to let it collapse. The country is now in a situation where it is getting closer to having to make that decision. Are the current threats of non-raising the debt ceiling designed to warn the world that this time is coming and that everyone must […]
Last August, Bernard Arnault (LVMH) overtook Jeff Bezos (Amazon) as world’s richest person.[1] The luxury giants have performed brilliantly on the stock market.[2] There is a lot of talk about the wealthy getting richer as a result of the Covid crisis as a direct explanation for this trend. But it is no longer the rich […]
Our team is always impressed by the broad vision provided by this exercise in exploring the future of the upcoming major political events. Whilst checking the following elections in Africa, South America and Eastern Europe in particular, we are struck by the gigantic wave of transformation sweeping or about to sweep the global political scene. […]
In 2024, the German military fighter planes that guarantee the country’s role in NATO’s nuclear sharing will be outdated. If this equipment is not replaced, Germany will no longer be able to host US nuclear weapons on its soil. This would be a major break in the transatlantic defence cooperation. Nuclear sharing is one of […]
The new military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) illustrates nothing more than a reheating of the Cold War between China and the West. In this barely concealed confrontation, blocs are beginning to take shape: in the West, an Anglo-Saxon bloc in the midst of an attempt to recompose itself […]