Category: Perspective

The coronavirus crisis is moving the world into the future. This is true on absolutely all fronts and it has become considerably more complicated to observe the immense societal change. In the thirty or so pages of this issue, emerging themes such as the wild (private) colonisation of space and the immense risks involved, or […]

The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]

The corona crisis has been the trigger for the EU to finally start issuing common bonds. It was a modest and hard-won step forward. In the midst of the flames, the fire brigade still took 5 days to decide to bring out the big fire hose. That says a lot about the degree of divisions […]

Political anticipation often uses the expression “historians of the future”. Usually, LEAP thus evokes the idea that its method of anticipation is to the future what History is to the past (in short, documentary qualification and heuristic narrative). Today, however, it is to the historians of tomorrow that we address ourselves, to those who will […]

Since 2006, the global systemic crisis described by the GEAB has referred to the ‘system’ founded in 1945 in the aftermath of the WW2.[1] Nevertheless, at the heart of this world order is the transatlantic relationship, a link between the USA and Europe based on a double predicate: Europe needs the American guardian so that, […]

The next US presidential election, despite its relatively normal exterior, is already showing some new features. For example: 1/ It’s not the main point of interest on the planet; 2/ Because of the pandemic, the Democratic primary did not really take place, but this did not prevent the nomination of the presumptive candidate; 3/ New […]

Political anticipation is LEAP’s method of “rationalisation of the future”.[1] In fact, it is very close to the “historical method” [2] in the sense that it is accessible to all and aids the social actor in adapting to the complex world which constitutes his new environment. Because of this, its practitioners have often been defined […]

Reduced mobility,[1] the tourism crisis,[2] the green economy,[3] dematerialisation of the economy,[4] Euroland,[5] digitalisation of central bank currencies,[6] a radical reform of the international financial system, disruption of the European banking system,[7] the end of liberalism, a paradigm shift and, even, our anticipation of a stabilisation phase in 2020[8]… As we entered this new decade, […]

With the neologism futuritis, we wish to denote a disease of the future – a disease whose development process begins with a deficiency, followed by an eruption and ending with high fever. Future deficiency in the 2000s: The Internet was already here, as well as supranational levels of governance to be completed (the EU in […]

A non-exhaustive review of global risk by continents/regions Geopolitical tensions will dominate the year 2020. From the most structural to the most cyclical, the reasons are: The multipolar world is no longer content just doing business and now wishes to defend its trade routes and hunting grounds (Europe, China, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran […]

The coming year is not just any year, but 2020! LEAP is one of the offshoots of Franck Biancheri’s Reinventing Europe project inaugurated in Athens in 1998,[1] which gave birth shortly afterwards to the think-tank Europe2020, the immediate predecessor of the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP). For 21 years, 2020 has been the time […]

The above title is provocative in a media world rightly focused on ecological catastrophes, popular discontent, risks of war and the financial crisis of 2020. But our mission is not to repeat what everyone knows – that the chaotic world of the beginning of the 21st century is a dangerous place… After all, hasn’t the […]

As an overview and introduction to our GlobalEurope Future Agenda in 56 dates, we anticipate a year’s end full of surprises and reversals – ‘surprises’ in terms of mainstream media thinking, but in line with many of our past analyses. Brexit: Protectionist England or Protectionist Europe? At the heart of these trend reversals, there is […]

In line with our anticipations in 2006 regarding the fall of the second half of the bipolar system centred around Russia and the United States, the recent dismissal of Trump’s security adviser, the neo-conservative John Bolton, is in our view a historic event of the same symbolic significance as Gorbachev’s launch of perestroika[1]. By openly […]

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the region’s future. They will be presented here exactly as originally published. The originality of our team’s anticipations of the Middle East region’s future is thus […]

Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth in the global flow of tourists, the EU will soon cease to be the world’s main tourist destination. We anticipate that, in 2025, Europe will lose its leading position to Asia. Over the next decade, […]

Reports are currently proliferating concerning the health of the European banking sector ten years after its great crisis.[1] However, on the one hand, the European banks only managed to get out of it with public funds;[2] on the other, some behemoths are still seen as ticking time bombs[3] (Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank,[4] Monte Paschi[5]…). Finally, the […]

There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]