Category: Telescope

Popular protests are growing and multiplying: from Arab spring, Occupy Wall Street, Indignados, Maidan, populist votes, to the yellow vests, Iraq, Algeria, demonstrations against global warming, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia… The streets are on fire, the markets are faltering and the only explanations being given are poverty, increasing disparity, taxes – “the […]

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’56 events that […]

In developed nations, there is a clear trend to living longer and having fewer children.[1] Certain countries have countered this trend through (planned or unplanned) immigration,[2] but this approach also causes change, with new ethnic mixes, and imported cultures, which in turn has led to a political backlash.[3] It is also well accepted that, as […]

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM[1] that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of […]

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, […]

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia […]

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet a military coup d’état. Certainly, the appearance of a large popular movement was able, for a few days, to delude international opinion on the nature […]

Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number […]

The Lascaux cave is a prehistoric site discovered in the Dordogne in 1940. Soon after, it was opened as a tourist attraction, which ended up endangering the magnificent rock paintings. So much so that in 1963 it was closed to the public[1]… or, rather, reserved for specialists. A replica of the cave and its paintings, […]

Interview with Eric Leandri, CEO of Qwant CEO and co-founder of the French search engine Qwant[1], Éric Leandri shares with GEAB readers his conviction that the US-China trade war offers Europe a window of opportunity to be exploited by focusing on the unique features of the European model. In the trade war between the United […]

The ongoing trade war between the US and China has recently taken a new turn with the involvement of the digital giants, under obvious pressure from the White House. Alleging that the company is a threat to national security, Donald Trump has placed Huawei on the list of undesirable companies in the USA,[1] pushing Google,[2] […]

Under the impetuous blows of the global systemic crisis, the automatic pilot system (technocracy), that determined our direction and cruising speed until 2008, is gradually coming to an end. The all-economic – or, rather, the all-techno finance – has begun to give way to politicians that are struggling to take charge in order to bring […]

The new face of tomorrow’s Europe matches the faces of tomorrow’s Europeans. Among the latter is one we wish to present to you: Manfred Weber, the very petulant 46-year-old German MEP of the “small” Bavarian Christian party CSU, who could very well be Juncker’s successor at the head of the European Commission soon. Why are […]

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This calendar of future events, produced every four months, is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the […]

We would like to remind you that one of the main guiding principles for analysing North American foreign policy and current events in and around the Middle East is the annexation by Israel of all or part of the Occupied Territories.[1] Preparations are underway. The sending of US troops close to Iran is intended to […]

Rural and urban lifestyles have always been different and, clearly, where you live is just one of many divides that affect our societies.  But this divide is one that has been changing over the years and where a crunch is likely to hit with consequences for politics, economics and society. The basic trends What is […]