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Category: Telescope

Calendar of future events (May-September 2019): 28 dates that will change the world… or not

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This calendar of future events, produced every four months, is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the […]

Middle East: The summer will be hot

We would like to remind you that one of the main guiding principles for analysing North American foreign policy and current events in and around the Middle East is the annexation by Israel of all or part of the Occupied Territories.[1] Preparations are underway. The sending of US troops close to Iran is intended to […]

Political Anticipation Notes: The rural/urban divide

Rural and urban lifestyles have always been different and, clearly, where you live is just one of many divides that affect our societies.  But this divide is one that has been changing over the years and where a crunch is likely to hit with consequences for politics, economics and society. The basic trends What is […]

A theoretical exercise – NATO: What happens if Israel attacks Turkey?

NATO is a 70-year-old baby boomer… just like the Organisation of American States (69), Mao Tse Tong’s Communist Republic of China, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Democratic Republic of Germany, the Treaty of Rome (72 years), the State of Israel (71 years), the Geneva Convention, George Orwell’s 1984 novel[1], Antonio Guterres, Bernard Arnault, Donald […]

Bricks of the future: A Reader’s Digest of the anticipations found on the net

The future is this web made of all the threads humans weave between themselves and tomorrow. In the work GEAB teams have undertaken to understand the ‘web’ of the future, it is very important to identify the anticipations, projects and strategies that seem most relevant and effective. As you know, we are particularly keen to […]

Second quarter 2019: Epilogue of the creation of Greater Israel

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]

Calendar of future events (February-May 2019): 26 dates that will change the world… or not

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’26 events that […]

Looming financial crisis: A self-fulfilling narrative?

Happy New Black Clouds? The standard wishes for a Happy New Year seem almost out of place for many, given the black clouds[1] that seem to be gathering over the economy of the United State of America (US)[2] and the political threats to the economy existing in the European Union (EU).[3] The proximate causes are […]

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (part two)

Future developments: What will be the new normal? President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt others were ‘flooding’ into ‘their’ country to take their jobs, as traditional politicians filled their own pockets, whilst clinging to economic theories of growth and […]

African Union: One road, One continent, One currency. The end of the CFA franc

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population[1], and also one of the poorest[2] is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world[3]; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in […]

September 2017 – Euro crisis: The ECB loses its independence

The post-Brexit Europe does not need the extreme right-wings, it is already lining up with the national-European model proposed by the British. The antagonism between European and national levels, which has dramatically increased within the crisis, due to a lack of democratic anchoring at the European level, has led in just 6 months to a […]

Germany: An Arrhythmia at the Heart of Europe

We anticipate that this European state will face several economic, cultural and political difficulties this year and next. First, the rise of the euro will hurt German exports; the stabilisation of oil prices prohibits the oxygen balloon effect of prices declines of 2015; failure of the migrant strategy puts Germany face to face with all […]

Multipolar World 2022: India’s Power Strategy via Washington

In view of China’s demographic being overtaken by India by 2022, India will use the structuring rivalry of the new world order emerging between the United States and China to advance its own interests, by operating a tactical rapprochement with Washington. This new partnership will be part of a struggle against Chinese trade surpluses and […]

United States, Fed, T-Bonds: The US federal level will undergo a budgetary slimming regime

The United States and Europe present striking similarities in their destinies. The way Brexit (itself a negative event) manages to free an EU paralysed by vast structural dysfunctions; Trump’s election (so traumatic for the Americans) probably provides an opportunity to redeem the country (and its partners) from a stifling allegiance system. We have repeatedly shown […]

United Kingdom: Towards a May-xit

“Since there is no future, the wanderings of the past are back in Europe”. On this topic, our team finds interesting to identify some sort of an echo of the Continental Blockade[1] within the Brexit affair. There will be of course no strict parallel, but this parallel might show that Brexit is at least as […]

The internationalisation of the Yuan: Securing China’s financial system

China’s decision to introduce in 2018 the gold-convertible petro-gazo-Yuan currency is an important step in the process of internationalisation of the Yuan. It confirms the will of Beijing (asserted for a decade already) to impose the Renminbi (official name of the Chinese currency) as new global reference currency. In October 2016 the IMF decided to […]

Savings in eurozone at heart of risk of new global financial crisis

Ten years after the Lehman Brothers collapse, the fear of another major financial crisis hasn’t totally disappeared. In a recent forum, Nouriel Roubini, one of the economists who had anticipated the 2007-2008 crisis, announced for 2020 the possibility of a new financial crisis, plunging the global economy into recession. For him, all the ingredients of […]

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (or From Trump to what?)

 We hereby inaugurate a series of articles by the title « Changing paradigm » aimed at anticipating the different economic and political models that are emerging on the horizon of the new multipolar world, their expansion processes and modes of interaction. Introduction: the scene is set The election of President Trump was clearly an important expression of […]