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The political anticipation method applied by the GEAB reveals that long-term trends are strong undercurrents on which short-term trends usually evolve. So, when our team commits to primarily anticipate phases of the crisis on the horizon in several years, it takes into serious consideration these structural macro-trends. Nuclear Energy – Spring 2017: the EU’s first […]

Considering the barrage of change indicators, our GEAB team currently feels like they don’t know where to start in order to provide a coherent and complete picture of the crisis. Yet, this feeling is probably nothing compared to what our leaders and their advisers experience. A sense of loss of control of the flow of […]

Common sense (or rather economic sense) would expect that excessive use of the printing press, especially in the US and Japan, causes inflation – if not hyperinflation given the amount of money injected into the system. And yet, it’s nothing of the kind. Are deflation and the printing press conniving in the US ? Or […]

At the source of the current huge global disorder (of which the latest events to date are the Ukraine and Iraq), is of course, as we have repeatedly explained, the end of the American superpower. Whether it’s dying at local level, the US pension system on the brink of collapse, the population’s extreme poverty, the […]

– Retirees: avoid the worst – How to protect yourself? – Gold: the instruction book In the GEAB n° 86 last June, we painted a bleak picture of the US pension system, one of the US’ time bombs. Before giving “survival” recommendations on this subject here, we would like to begin with a reminder of […]

– A superpower destroyed by its hubris – and destroying the world – The US – the sick man of the world – A broken political system… and a biased guardian of the Constitution – A social system on its last legs – A bankrupt education system – And how is the economy doing?

. The challenge of financing public authorities . Add a new floor to the fiscal structure, why not? . Principles of a trans-European taxation system . A question of democracy as well . Europe, last floor before a worldwide system of collection . The inadequacy of a taxation system with the nation-state at the apex

MUMBAI: Government action to increase spending on irrigation and crop insurance is not enough to end a cycle of indebtedness that has led to thousands of farmer suicides, and a complete overhaul of credit and subsidies to farmers is needed, activists said. Drought in many parts of the country has hit rice, cotton and other […]

Precisely ten years ago (to the day), in its second bulletin of February 2006[1], warning about the imminent explosion of a «global systemic crisis”, the GEAB based its opinion on the identification of two strong signs: the end of the publication of the M3 money supply indicator[2] (suggesting a start to unusual degrees of the […]

The petrodollar system has been in agony for several years now. We wrote in our GEAB No. 100 that our team’s belief was that we were about to live through the final collapse of this system in 2016. Since it is the pillar of the current international monetary order, its fall will allow (even force) […]

Since the United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973, according to the exorbitant terms that we know for Europe, its leaders have renewed, ad nauseam, Margaret Thatcher’s strategy based on the following idea: “You need us, but we do not want you, so you do as we say”. Yet, what was true in 1973, […]

Our team has chosen to place 2016 under the sign of a “general strategic retreat”, affecting all levels of social organization, starting of course with the national levels, but not only. This retreat (or fallback) will not yet represent in 2016 the end of the global mobility, of the international exchanges or of the internet, […]

LEAP/E2020 is offering you, like each year, a summary overview of the key trends in 2016. Besides the intellectual significance of LEAP/E2020’s contribution, which of course reflects many of the analyses of our researchers during the past months, it aims at enabling a better perception of news priorities, while at the same time providing recommendations… […]

To explain the current financial turmoil, all official accusing fingers are pointing to a single guilty party: China, the ideal guilty player, the same way Greece and the euro currency were at their time. It is true that evidence seems to be on the side of those accusing fingers, due to the recently unstable Shanghai […]

Oil prices could break below $20 this year as tensions rise between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two of the world’s largest oil players, Again Capital founding partner John Kilduff said Monday. “I think you’re going to get as low as $18 and maybe get as high as $48. … It’s going to get really ugly,” […]

BEIJING — When Zhou Meifen gave birth to her second child not long after 12:01 a.m. on New Year’s Day, she dodged a $12,000 birth control tax by just a few minutes. The 36-year-old interior designer from Wenzhou in China’s Zhejiang province was one of the earliest beneficiaries of the new law that took effect […]

After a hollow year 2014, particularly because of the disruption caused by the Ukrainian crisis, our team returns to its usual scores, close to 75% of successful anticipations. . Investments, trends and recommendations -Oil, shale, inventories: still not for tomorrow : Our team did not find many articles in the international media showing surprise about how […]

The  « Gulfies»  : after the oil, the sky is the limit. In the GEAB No 96 of June 2015, we had discussed one of the new diversification strategies of the Gulf countries’ economies, particularly the one related to the capturing of the international air traffic through game stakes based on direct investments in the European […]