Category: Magazine

Remember! Back in 2017 we anticipated that Saudi Arabia would soon be selling its oil in yuan? This was a highly provocative hypothesis at the time, since the country was then one of the two pillars of the petrodollar system.[1] Two years later, it became clear that export flows of Saudi oil were making a […]

Back to reality all round. And if there is one area that has been seized by acute “virtualisation” in the last decade, it is technology companies. They have found themselves at the heart of a collective fantasy of the transmuting human being into bits and digits. Without calling into question the strong trend to digitalise […]

For 12 years, the West has been struggling to understand the message of the 2008 crisis: “You are no longer the only ones on the planet!” The dollar, international organisations dominated by the West, Western-centric financial markets, trade flows focused on Europe and the US,… the fantastic global trade network set up during the first […]

Commodity markets’ upcoming revolution Growing trade conflicts and de-globalisation within the commodity markets will trigger a rewrite of many COMEX pricing contracts and a resurgence in regional exchanges by 2025. For the last 20 years, the international pricing of key commodities has been driven by the growing market in futures contracts. Today, as many prices […]

The world is undergoing one of the greatest transformations in history, directly linked to a global crisis making the future ever more uncertain. Whether it be governance, geopolitics, economic, social issues or new technologies, the GEAB tries to shed light on the future using a method that has stood up to scrutiny: political anticipation. For […]

The Covid-19 pandemic has considerably ramped up the fear in the agro-food sector of an epizootic/epiphytic pandemic on strategic foodstuffs (pork, rice, flour, etc.). The conditions that favour human, vegetable or animal-related pandemic are actually the same, namely overpopulation and interconnectivity. We anticipate that the scheduled modernisation of agriculture will be considerably accelerated as a […]

The arrival of private satellite launchers – inaugurated by SpaceX – is a major game-changer, opening the way for space privatisation. If we combine this trend with the older one of a multi-polarisation (since the arrival of China, India, Brazil, etc.) of the skies, as well as the diversification of the uses of space (observation, […]

Our last article on the American election dates from four months ago (‘US Election 2020 – A New America takes over’ – GEAB, 15 May 2020).[1] Among the many arguments suggesting a significant risk of process derailment, we identified concerns about the management of the election; we believed that the change in voting access was […]

Europe’s largest refugee camp, Moria on Lesbos, has burned to the ground[1]. 12 000 people have lost the closest thing they had to a home and Europe’s politicians are issuing statements of shock and horror, even though they have been well aware of the drastic situation in Moria for years. NGOs go as far as […]

The coronavirus crisis is moving the world into the future. This is true on absolutely all fronts and it has become considerably more complicated to observe the immense societal change. In the thirty or so pages of this issue, emerging themes such as the wild (private) colonisation of space and the immense risks involved, or […]

The prospects for social reorganisation that can be imagined from the current health crisis are enormous. We have, therefore, decided to focus on Europe, about which we are much more certain than we are about the rest of the world. But certain trends of transformation will be the same everywhere. Governance: strengthening regional and global […]

There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]

There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And this is not an anticipation! We reiterate that the […]

The financial crisis followed by the debt crisis has led to a substantial change in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) and to more political provisions. The ECB has acquired implicit mandates to safeguard the euro but also an economic policy which all go far beyond the original objective of price stability. The […]

This anticipation is not very original but it must nevertheless be faced with all the lucidity required. It is hardly a hypothesis, but rather a certainty: the allied European far rights will constitute the most consistent and therefore powerful parliamentary group in the next European Parliament, whatever their results in the previous national elections. What […]

Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The United States, structural associate of the European project since its origin – but mostly since the […]

A long time ago, in 1998, Franck Biancheri, our regretfully departed director of studies, signed an anticipatory article entitled: « 2009, when Europe ends up in the hands of the grandsons of Hitler, Pétain, Mussolini… ». This is the fate he anticipated for the EU in case it failed to democratize. The failure is a patent […]

The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]