Category: europe
The construction of a federal structure for the eurozone got off to a bad start. The vision of the French government to strengthen the structure of the monetary union by creating new eurozone institutions, particularly a Ministry of Finance with its own budget and a convergence of business tax rates[1], already seemed like a somewhat […]
So far, the media and political analysts have been unanimous: Brexit represents an uncertain and dangerous future only for the UK. Our readers know that we have always been more circumspect about this. Now that the first phase of negotiations has been completed (at the end of last year) and the second phase is about […]
The future is full of factual data on which must be based anticipations that shed light on our decisions. That’s why, once a quarter, our team shares with GEAB readers this ‘raw’ data of its work in the form of an annnotated calendar for the next three months; a calendar which everyone can adapt to […]
More than three years after the Ukraine-related Euro-Russian catastrophe, there is no hope of an end to this crisis. On the contrary, the tension inexorably keeps climbing: Donbass still at war, annexation of Crimea by Russia not recognised by the international community,… the eyes are now turning to the Baltic Sea where demonstrations of military […]
General Recommendation – Alert: Large zone of turbulence by the end of the year It is of course impossible to guess what the end of the year will precisely look like. Nevertheless, we wish to draw our readers’ attention to the fact that the whole planet is currently in a general and simultaneous repositioning phase. […]
We anticipated this in May[1]: good news abounds in the eurozone, notably for the economic matters, with a “recovery” making Mr. Trump and Mrs. May jealous[2]. This even encourages the ECB to consider reducing its quantitative easing programme earlier than expected, namely in January[3], before halting it in September 2018. Investments go up, unemployment declines[4], […]
Here after, we will try to sketch out the landscape of a series of elections awaiting us until the end of 2017 (in chronological order). Each of these elections reflects the challenges facing Europe by 2019; challenges which come not just from national or regional voters. The success to reconcile voters’ expectations, government bets and […]
Qatar, North Korea, the Baltic Sea, risk of a World War III… and all the military ranting mentioned in the media lately, are issues going hand in hand with the programmed and imminent advent of the catastrophic scenario for the dollar as a unique world reference currency: the Petro-Yuan will be in place at the […]
Regarding the latest events occurring in the Balkans, the Westerners seem to be winning the game against Russia. Thus, in Macedonia the new government of Zoran Zaev is not far from finding a solution on the dispute which opposed it to Greece and blocked its candidacies for NATO and the EU[1]; Montenegro joined NATO on […]
Our loyal readers will not have been surprised by the result of Theresa May’s early election. Not only had we put in perspective a defeat of Theresa May, despite the favourable outcome given to her by the polls; but, from Greece to the United Kingdom, we keep repeating that there is no exit from Europe, […]
May 19 – Iran: presidential election A serious opponent is now threatening the chances of re-election of the reformist Hassan Rohani. This man is the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raissi, reinforced by the great geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran: war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, involvement in the Syrian conflict, Israeli threats of aggression, risk of questioning the […]
The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential […]
This expression “chaotic recomposition” seems best to summarise the phase where we currently are with regards to the development of the crisis, a step indicated here as extending over four years and which will include distinct progression phases. It is quite clear that efforts to reorganise the world on a transnational logic have all failed […]
The tiny financial centres of the Eurozone have been rubbing their hands since the British chose to leave the EU, positioning themselves in order to recuperate significant market shares of the City’s activity. A recent study made by the Brussels think-tank Bruegel proposes two scenarios of possible gains for a number of financial centres, depending […]
This anticipation is not very original but it must nevertheless be faced with all the lucidity required. It is hardly a hypothesis, but rather a certainty: the allied European far rights will constitute the most consistent and therefore powerful parliamentary group in the next European Parliament, whatever their results in the previous national elections. What […]
Without Kissinger to negotiate the petrodollar and put the US currency back to the centre of the global game after the shock of Nixon’s announcement in 1971 to halt the convertibility of the dollar to gold, the greenback would never have been the world benchmark since more than 40 years. Will Trump really know how […]
Here and there[1] we may read some optimistic analyses on the European property market, saying either that the “revival” is here, that the sector is in good health, and so on. As our readers might guess, we are less enthusiastic and suggest the utmost caution in this regard, although the outlook is not uniformly and […]
February 15-16 / Astana: Next round of peace talks on Syria The peace in Syria initiative launched by Russia, Turkey and Iran in the wake of the December 29 ceasefire agreement continues. The capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, will be hosting a new meeting on February 15 and 16, to which the United States, the United […]