Category: geopolitics
The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations…) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? That is the whole question. Certainly, we do need to change the international system (financial, monetary, democratic, of […]
The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations…) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? With the US-Russian exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), uncertainties surrounding US-China trade negotiations, the new […]
As every year, LEAP is presenting a brief overview of the major ‘up and down’ trends[1] for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of our researchers over the last few months, the aim is to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]
When members of the UN Security Council wage war at each other… It is clear that in a supposedly common struggle against a common enemy – the Islamic State – two great powers (and their “allies”) now oppose each other, USA against Russia, and the irony is that each relies on the legitimacy of the […]
Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. “Future data” represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. Since June 2016, the GEAB team has decided to share with its readers the raw data which underpins our anticipations. […]
As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium. In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]
Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population[1], and also one of the poorest[2] is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world[3]; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in […]
In view of China’s demographic being overtaken by India by 2022, India will use the structuring rivalry of the new world order emerging between the United States and China to advance its own interests, by operating a tactical rapprochement with Washington. This new partnership will be part of a struggle against Chinese trade surpluses and […]
Three times a year, as part of its decision-making toolbox, the GEAB team prepares for you a factual map of the next four to six months. . July 2017 – June 2018: Visegrad Group – Rotating Presidency Figure 1 – Visegrad Group. Source: Wikipedia Hungary is holding the rotating presidency of the Visegrad Group […]
“Since there is no future, the wanderings of the past are back in Europe”. On this topic, our team finds interesting to identify some sort of an echo of the Continental Blockade[1] within the Brexit affair. There will be of course no strict parallel, but this parallel might show that Brexit is at least as […]
Ukraine continues to create a significant barrier between Europe and Russia, forcing EU member states to abandon the dynamics of community to preserve interests intrinsically linked to the fluidity of their relations with Russia. Individually, these countries (Italy, Austria, Hungary, Greece, Germany, France, etc.), in a more or less ostentatious way, are ignoring the Ukrainian […]
The Food Blockchain Waste, traceability requirements, increased food risks, decentralised production, the costs of this global food-industry, consumer prices: Consumers and industry players are becoming increasingly demanding about transparency within the agri-food sector, the origin and composition of products and the processes involved in their transformation. Manufacturers, producers, suppliers, distributors and consumers: We are living […]
We hereby inaugurate a series of articles by the title « Changing paradigm » aimed at anticipating the different economic and political models that are emerging on the horizon of the new multipolar world, their expansion processes and modes of interaction. Introduction: the scene is set The election of President Trump was clearly an important expression of […]
The millions of dollars dumped in South America by evangelical churches have brought the eighth world economic power (Brazil) into their hands, knowing that the first (the US) is already conquered. In Africa, it is the Pentecostals who spread their hatred of others and try to place their aficionados inside the governments. The sixth world […]
As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium. In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]
We have been anticipating for many months a political takeover by the national level all over the world. This takeover has emerged as a necessity linked to the structural incapacity of supranational levels of governance (patiently put in place during the second half of the twentieth century) to trigger the reforms imposed by the huge […]
Saudi Arabia has recently sent a significant signal concerning the establishment of a ‘New Middle East’, perfectly in line with all our anticipations for this world region. Let’s take a look at this move. At the beginning of March, Mohammed Ben Salman (aka MBS) visited Egypt as part of his first official visit abroad since […]
The revival of European dynamics, whatever they might be, depends largely on the restoration of relations with Russia. This has divided the European Union since 2014 and demonstrated how much this edifice, in its initial form, is no longer capable to serve the most obvious interests of our continent, starting with maintaining good relations with […]