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At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, […]

Brexit seemed to have opened up the long-awaited project of redefining the functioning and objectives of the European machine. But today Brussels prefers to boast about the UK’s difficulties, and, thinking of itself as unavoidable, it is undertaking to unearth all its bottom drawer projects. Hence, over the heads of the citizens, a whole bunch of […]

The future is full of factual data on which must be based anticipations that shed light on our decisions. That’s why, once a quarter, our team shares with GEAB readers this ‘raw’ data of its work in the form of an annnotated calendar for the next three months; a calendar which everyone can adapt to […]

“Brexit means Brexit”[1]. For Theresa May, soft Brexit does not exist: an exit from the European Union necessarily means an exit from the European single market. Brexit therefore means hard Brexit for the British government. Within our GEAB bulletin no 103, we have already stated the possibility that the City might find itself “on the […]

As happens every year, LEAP/E2020 presents in January a panorama of the “up & down” main trends[1] of the coming year. Besides the intellectual added value of this contribution, which of course reflects many of the analyses our researchers made over the last few months, LEAP/E2020 aims to enable a better perception of priorities within […]

To preface our up & down trends presented in this issue, here are the orientations which we consider structuring for 2018. This panorama, combined with the 33 up & down trends, presents a vision of the landscape we see for this year.  In our latest bulletin, we took record of the end of the “global […]

Each year in December, we release an assessment of our trend expectations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 27 out of 36, meaning a 75% success, exactly the same percentage as in 2016. Currencies Dollar – End of the exceptional status: 1 « As we saw two months ago, […]

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, […]

Dear readers, Another year is ending. The 12th year for us… and for some of you as GEAB readers. As it goes with Decembers, it is time to take a break, to ponder the road we have travelled, to question the relevance of pursuing, and to ask ourselves what research orientations to give to this […]

– Iran … Germany, France and Norway have signed a series of contracts with Iran. They are not the only ones in Europe[1], despite the warnings and the risks which potential North American sanctions pose to European companies contravening the US policy[2]. The amounts of those contracts are significant and they refer to diverse sectors, […]

End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich […]

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia […]

More than three years after the Ukraine-related Euro-Russian catastrophe, there is no hope of an end to this crisis. On the contrary, the tension inexorably keeps climbing: Donbass still at war, annexation of Crimea by Russia not recognised by the international community,… the eyes are now turning to the Baltic Sea where demonstrations of military […]

General Recommendation – Alert: Large zone of ​​turbulence by the end of the year It is of course impossible to guess what the end of the year will precisely look like. Nevertheless, we wish to draw our readers’ attention to the fact that the whole planet is currently in a general and simultaneous repositioning phase. […]

We anticipated this in May[1]: good news abounds in the eurozone, notably for the economic matters, with a “recovery” making Mr. Trump and Mrs. May jealous[2]. This even encourages the ECB to consider reducing its quantitative easing programme earlier than expected, namely in January[3], before halting it in September 2018. Investments go up, unemployment declines[4], […]

The “peer-to-peer economy” has increased extensively and suffered transformations due to the development of giant commercial players such as Airbnb. The growth of this tourist property-renting website between individuals is indeed quite impressive. Figure 1 – Number of travellers who use Airbnb each summer, 2010-2015. Source: Airbnb. Despite this dizzying curve as well as the […]

Here after, we will try to sketch out the landscape of a series of elections awaiting us until the end of 2017 (in chronological order). Each of these elections reflects the challenges facing Europe by 2019; challenges which come not just from national or regional voters. The success to reconcile voters’ expectations, government bets and […]

Qatar, North Korea, the Baltic Sea, risk of a World War III… and all the military ranting mentioned in the media lately, are issues going hand in hand with the programmed and imminent advent of the catastrophic scenario for the dollar as a unique world reference currency: the Petro-Yuan will be in place at the […]