Category: Telescope

While the need for the digitalisation of the international monetary system described earlier is being reinforced by the financial crisis triggered by the pandemic, one finds in many articles on this topic the same fixed idea: allowing the world to bypass the American system of sanctions.[1] Indeed, these digital currency projects do not date back […]

Many people will see their dreams of radical change disappointed. Yet there will certainly be change! You don’t need to be an eminent guru to understand that the 8 trillion dollars to be injected into the world economy that the G20 leaders have announced,[1] in addition to the 250 trillion dollars of world debt accumulated […]

 “In 2020, a global pandemic called COVID-19 brought the world economy to a virtual standstill for several months. To contain the epidemic, governments had to take radical measures to contain populations, reducing activity to the essentials: health, food and certain basic services (telecommunications, water, electricity, financial systems, etc.). It was during these few weeks of […]

Since 2008, the GEAB has been talking about the ‘world after’. Now everyone is using this expression. It is therefore time to archive the ‘global systemic crisis of 2008-2020’.[1] The ‘historian of the future’ is the one who will have described what happened over this 12-year period. Now that a chapter of history is coming […]

Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars? From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate the next one and save us from going down the “war” route… that is if, indeed, this route has really been avoided. Let us remember […]

Oil/Libya: War or US shale collapse? In Libya, General Haftar, mainly supported by the Americans, is not giving up. The reason is simple: he is acting under orders to block the oil wells of a country which is seeing its production collapsing, thus giving some support to the plunging prices of crude oil… and slowing […]

Briefly annotated, here are some important dates to keep in mind as we look ahead to 2020. 31st January: EU – Official exit of the UK The beginning of some clarification, but negotiation is still needed to establish the nature of future EU-UK relations. This is an important step, but not the end of the […]

As an introduction to our traditional January “key trends”, here are the main guiding lines that we have identified for this “phoney year [1]”. This first year of the new decade promises us a journey through dangerous waters. And the financial crisis announced two years ago by a desperate world of finance could be the […]

This in-depth assessment of our anticipations for the year will be used to update our map of major global transformational trends. We present here a synthesis of a year of anticipations tested against reality and placed in a more classical temporal continuum (past and present). This meticulous work is specially intended to enable everyone to […]

Popular protests are growing and multiplying: from Arab spring, Occupy Wall Street, Indignados, Maidan, populist votes, to the yellow vests, Iraq, Algeria, demonstrations against global warming, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia… The streets are on fire, the markets are faltering and the only explanations being given are poverty, increasing disparity, taxes – “the […]

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’56 events that […]

In developed nations, there is a clear trend to living longer and having fewer children.[1] Certain countries have countered this trend through (planned or unplanned) immigration,[2] but this approach also causes change, with new ethnic mixes, and imported cultures, which in turn has led to a political backlash.[3] It is also well accepted that, as […]

We estimate that there is a very high (70%) probability of the imminent launch of a rapid and brutal birthing process of Greater Israel. Figure 1: Comparison between the presentation of the Israeli districts in the Wikipedia in French (left) and the Wikipedia in Hebrew (right) in their version of August 2015. The Wikipedia in […]

The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM[1] that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of […]

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, […]

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia […]

We have repeatedly analyzed that only the regional powers would be able to restore calm in the Middle East and resolve the Daesh issue, the common enemy on which (almost) everyone has agreed. However, we have stated that the US or Russian interventions would only have the effect of exacerbating tensions. Repeatedly missed opportunities Suffice […]

The West couldn’t help but acknowledge the Morsi’s overthrow by the military in Egypt on 3 July last. Fortunately, everyone quickly realised that one can hardly claim democracy and greet a military coup d’état. Certainly, the appearance of a large popular movement was able, for a few days, to delude international opinion on the nature […]