Archives

As every year, LEAP is presenting a brief overview of the major ‘up and down’ trends[1] for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of  our researchers over the last few months, the aim is to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]

It is time to get rid of Western Sovereign Bonds  Following the previous article on the topic of US Treasuries, it seems clear to our team that it is best to avoid US government bonds at the moment. In fact, there are some more reasons we recommend that you sell all your Western states bonds. […]

When members of the UN Security Council wage war at each other… It is clear that in a supposedly common struggle against a common enemy – the Islamic State – two great powers (and their “allies”) now oppose each other, USA against Russia, and the irony is that each relies on the legitimacy of the […]

Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. “Future data” represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. Since June 2016, the GEAB team has decided to share with its readers the raw data which underpins our anticipations. […]

Gold: Stand still Great caution is required on all fronts now that Mr Trump has been elected as president. This principle will transversally mark every one of our recommendations. The gold price chart continues to tell us that we are correct – against all the intuitions from media experts – because, despite a brief rise […]

Geab.eu also is going through a period of systemic transition! Further to a long process of consultation, reflection, construction and implementation, the new GEAB site is ready to be presented to you at this end-of-year holiday season! Many thanks to those of you who took part in the early stages of this transformation by answering […]

17 Up et 16 Down Each year in December, we release an evaluation of our anticipations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 22.5 out of 33 key tendencies, meaning a 68% success, 7 points less than last year (75%). Here is our success rate graphic: The view we […]

General recommendation: Find shelters!  You will understand when reading this issue that the clouds are gathering during the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Take out your umbrellas, raincoats and wellingtons! This is not the first time that we have alerted you this way, but the GEAB is intended to signal […]

Largely criticised by some, glorified by others, cryptocurrencies keep raising questions and represent as many threats as opportunities depending where we stand; whether on the side of citizens, institutions, businesses or governments. After a spectacular rise in valuations, we are currently witnessing a collapse in the capitalisation of most crypto-assets. The euphoria is well behind […]

Future developments: What will be the new normal? President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt others were ‘flooding’ into ‘their’ country to take their jobs, as traditional politicians filled their own pockets, whilst clinging to economic theories of growth and […]

The ‘yellow vests’ (FR),[1] the pro- and anti-Brexit protests (UK),[2] the German political crisis (DE),[3] the Catalan independence movement (SP),[4] the budget battle (IT),[5] the labour law reform (HU),[6] the Marrakesh agreement and ministerial reshuffle (BE)[7]… the European element in the increasingly violent crises currently feeding the national news is striking. Disclaimer: We recommend that […]

Infrastructure versus sovereign bonds We have repeatedly emphasised this before: Donald Trump’s campaign promises and the probable launch of “fiscal QEs” in Europe and in the US, offer a bright future for infrastructure investments. There is no doubt that construction companies have a fabulous opportunity here and will benefit from it. Any investment in this […]

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population[1], and also one of the poorest[2] is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world[3]; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in […]

Currencies: Watch out, Turbulence Ahead The currency market is particularly dangerous this year: with a dollar which has strengthened whilst Trump needs a weak currency and will do everything possible to achieve the goal; a yuan which risks at any moment to be devalued, authoritatively as we have seen, while its medium-term movement is on […]

Euro: keep believing in it! The LEAP team now believes that the more we are told about the difficulties of the euro, the more we must hear “course change needed” rather than “end of the euro coming”. Euro exit threats are mostly brandished as part of the haggling and bargaining kind of negotiations currently taking […]

The post-Brexit Europe does not need the extreme right-wings, it is already lining up with the national-European model proposed by the British. The antagonism between European and national levels, which has dramatically increased within the crisis, due to a lack of democratic anchoring at the European level, has led in just 6 months to a […]

We anticipate that this European state will face several economic, cultural and political difficulties this year and next. First, the rise of the euro will hurt German exports; the stabilisation of oil prices prohibits the oxygen balloon effect of prices declines of 2015; failure of the migrant strategy puts Germany face to face with all […]

General strategy: the eye of the storm Like we started warning in our last GEAB issue, the utmost caution is still required these days. The appearance of recovery, here and there, is either the effect of short-term communication, or sources of disruptions with unpredictable consequences (or both). Our general advice is to stay vigilant and […]