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The world is on the brink of a wave of unprecedented development which is poised to sweep over the Middle East, Africa, India, Southeast Asia, the United States and the planet as a whole. The foundations on which this new world will be built are becoming clearer and clearer: A globalised electric grid, networks of […]

Cryptocurrencies lie at the centre of many of the questions being asked by individuals, companies and market authorities, and therefore by nation states. Their position within the economic environment is becoming more and more important for several related reasons: The large investments made by those people who consider cryptocurrencies safe havens or speculative tools The […]

Apprehension goes hand-in-hand with financial matters. Last April, the alarmist IMF announcements predicted a huge crisis by 2020 linked to the level of global debt that ten years of ‘crisis management’ have not brought under control. Rather, US public debt has doubled in absolute terms (from $10,000 billion to $20,000 billion), the EU’s debt has […]

Following the removal of the last of the bolts imposed by the previous world order[1], and in line with our anticipations, vast amounts of until now restrained transforming energy are now being released along paths that have long been marked out but were previously forbidden. The challenges raised by this transition are immense, but the […]

Three times a year, the GEAB offers its readers a selection of ‘weak signals’ consisting of brief alerts in a variety of sectors (environment, finance, technology, geopolitics, etc.), revealing profound changes which together offer an ‘impressionist’ picture of the future. Here is our latest selection… The White Rhinoceros Its sad disappearance has come at a […]

The construction of a federal structure for the eurozone got off to a bad start. The vision of the French government to strengthen the structure of the monetary union by creating new eurozone institutions, particularly a Ministry of Finance with its own budget and a convergence of business tax rates[1], already seemed like a somewhat […]

In view of Narendra Modi’s very probable re-election in 2019, it is time to take stock of the Indian Prime Minister’s first term; a somewhat mixed balance sheet, both economically and politically. The partial failure of the demonetisation scheme, the numerous SME bankruptcies, the prospect of a rural exodus of nearly 600 million people over […]

In the next five years, the ICO (Initial Coin Offering), which currently looks like a micro-phenomenon in the sphere of fundraising, will be an essential means for structuring a company on a sustainable basis. Turn lead into gold Halfway between crowdfunding and traditional fundraising IPO (Initial Public Offering), ICO is a new tool allowing companies […]

So far, the media and political analysts have been unanimous: Brexit represents an uncertain and dangerous future only for the UK. Our readers know that we have always been more circumspect about this. Now that the first phase of negotiations has been completed (at the end of last year) and the second phase is about […]

At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, […]

Brexit seemed to have opened up the long-awaited project of redefining the functioning and objectives of the European machine. But today Brussels prefers to boast about the UK’s difficulties, and, thinking of itself as unavoidable, it is undertaking to unearth all its bottom drawer projects. Hence, over the heads of the citizens, a whole bunch of […]

The future is full of factual data on which must be based anticipations that shed light on our decisions. That’s why, once a quarter, our team shares with GEAB readers this ‘raw’ data of its work in the form of an annnotated calendar for the next three months; a calendar which everyone can adapt to […]

“Brexit means Brexit”[1]. For Theresa May, soft Brexit does not exist: an exit from the European Union necessarily means an exit from the European single market. Brexit therefore means hard Brexit for the British government. Within our GEAB bulletin no 103, we have already stated the possibility that the City might find itself “on the […]

As happens every year, LEAP/E2020 presents in January a panorama of the “up & down” main trends[1] of the coming year. Besides the intellectual added value of this contribution, which of course reflects many of the analyses our researchers made over the last few months, LEAP/E2020 aims to enable a better perception of priorities within […]

To preface our up & down trends presented in this issue, here are the orientations which we consider structuring for 2018. This panorama, combined with the 33 up & down trends, presents a vision of the landscape we see for this year.  In our latest bulletin, we took record of the end of the “global […]

Each year in December, we release an assessment of our trend expectations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 27 out of 36, meaning a 75% success, exactly the same percentage as in 2016. Currencies Dollar – End of the exceptional status: 1 « As we saw two months ago, […]

We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of “up and down trends”: Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a new strong player in the region, […]

Dear readers, Another year is ending. The 12th year for us… and for some of you as GEAB readers. As it goes with Decembers, it is time to take a break, to ponder the road we have travelled, to question the relevance of pursuing, and to ask ourselves what research orientations to give to this […]