Category: Magazine

By January 1st, 2024, Argentina was expected to become a member of the BRICS bloc, alongside Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates[1]. However, Milei’s election as President abruptly reversed the country’s diplomatic trajectory, with a very marked pro-American shift, embodied in the desire to dollarise the economy. Such a choice implies […]

Similar to the gradual movement of continents, the reshaping of the global order is a protracted and gradual phenomenon when examined on a monthly scale. While marked by intense clashes that give rise to mountain ranges and definitive separations resulting in straits, seas, or oceans, geopolitical plate tectonics unfolds over an extended period. Between the […]

Eurozone: State bankruptcies on the horizon? Stagflation, recession, rising credit costs, unemployment… the negative signals are multiplying for the eurozone economies. As the end of the year approaches, these indicators are going to hit the headlines and it is going to become increasingly complicated for governments to put on a brave face. The direct consequence […]

Mihai Nadin, Emeritus Ashbel Smith University Professor, University of Texas at Dallas. His career combines engineering, mathematics, digital technology, philosophy, semiotics, theory of mind, and anticipatory systems. He holds advanced degrees in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and a post-doctoral degree in Philosophy, Logic, and the Theory of Science. His forthcoming book is Disrupt Science: […]

Our team is continuing to research and reflect on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on our future societies. In doing so, we are seeking to gather a wealth of viewpoints in order to take full measure of the potential impact of AI on all aspects of our civilisation. We felt that the point of […]

With the subprime crisis (2007/2009), the rescue plans for banks and financial institutions reached such dizzying heights that we did not expect to see them again any time soon. Since then, the global debt clock has continued to churn out figures that are just as crazy… Between the Covid crisis (2020/2021), the Afghan debacle (2021), […]

The reshaping of the world is reflected in the evolution of trade routes. Global merchandise trade is expected to reach $32.6 billion in 2030, with Asia, Africa and the Middle East accounting for 44% of exports, with mainland China, India and South Korea leading the way in terms of volume[1]. The Eurasian continent is back […]

In our October issue, the GEAB team anticipated Ukraine’s medium-term development: As a result, Ukraine’s integration into the EU seems rather hypothetical, as it would have to be supported by all Member States…. The Ukrainian people are beginning to realise this. In the medium term, the country will experience the paradoxes that the EU can […]

The conflict will be resolved in the short term and will allow the region to integrate and open up to all its potential. This is what we presented last month, in line with our work on the future of the Middle East over the last seventeen years. This scenario stays solid, we think. However, it […]

Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]

One year on from the global recession: Navigating the new economy In September, JP Morgan’s monthly Global Manufacturing PMI recorded the twelfth consecutive global recession[1]. Just as we anticipated with inflation, recession is a lasting trend. We are entering a new economy in which a return to high interest rates (the norm), shortages and difficulties […]

Forests are far more than just verdant scenery. They are essential ecosystems, hubs of biodiversity, with a pivotal role in upholding ecological equilibrium and sustaining human existence. Among their myriad advantages, three significant roles are prominent: the stabilisation of soil, the preservation of drinking water and, maybe the most important one, forests are the lungs […]

As part of our reflections on the French-speaking world, multilingualism and the future of international languages, we wanted to talk to Sven Franck, a German living in France. He is also co-chair of the French list for the European elections for Volt, a pan-European party. This gives us the opportunity to anticipate the consequences of […]

Despite the “anti-French sentiment” currently sweeping Africa and suggesting that France is losing its appeal[1], we anticipate a renewed dynamism of the French language worldwide. The best proof will be when it regains its colours outside the institutions and funds responsible for its “defence”. One month before the inauguration of the Cité de la Langue […]

Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who […]

The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]

Cheap oil is history As demonstrated in our economic panorama, oil prices will remain high in the short and medium term, driven mainly by the coordinated action of Russia and Saudi Arabia. What we need to remember about the BRICS+ expansion is that the United States is losing influence over the oil market. This trend […]

Africa, the last pawn on the global multipolar chessboard Egypt, Ethiopia[1], South Africa: Africa’s BRICS axis is more oriented towards the East, although it should be noted that Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, is also the capital of the AU (African Union), which opens a huge door to the continent. The geopolitical map of the […]