Archives

  • Analysis of 9 indicators of the triggering of a global systemic crisis March 2006 - A systemic crisis, especially a global one, is not a sudden process. It is on the contrary a progressive phenomenon that can be anticipated through the analysis of certain indicators that reveal growing weakness in the international financial system, ruptures of sub-systems and attempts by some strategic players to manipulate or conceal the main indicators. Indeed, when a crisis of this scope is triggered, such players can only control one factor (and they may not even be able to control this factor) – the precise moment when the public become aware that the system is in a crisis. When a company is about file for bankruptcy, the managers tend to first warn their friends and closest partners whom they fear not to warn. However these same managers tend to keep ... Read
  • USA-Iran-Dollar/Confirmation of a global systemic crisis beginning late March March 2006 - M3 is the decisive factor … As illustrated by most of the 9 indicators described in this third issue, the past weeks have confirmed how decisive the US Federal Reserve’s decision is to stop reporting M3 on March 23, 2006. We are now convinced that this decision portends a period of accelerated money-printing by the Fed, concealed behind public statements that inflation is under control, that will result in the collapse of the US Dollar and the monetarisation of US debt (public and private), which a growing number of US experts now feel will never be repaid given the constantly growing gigantic amount (the US public debt now represents more than USD 8,000 billion, i.e., approximately four times the federal budget in 2006). According to the very conservative Heritage Foundation, ... Read
  • Euroland facing a Dollar plunge February 2006 - The crisis anticipated for the end of March 2006 will provide a serious test for Euroland and will determine whether the Euro is sustainable or not. The significant fall of the Dollar will automatically induce a strong upward pressure on the Euro against this currency, and against others linked to the Dollar (the Chinese currency namely). The situation will provoke an immediate and significant fall of the competitiveness of European companies exporting towards the Dollar zone, with a negative impact on European exportations, accompanied by an immediate aggravation of unemployment in the Euro zone. In this situation, some countries will be tempted to get away from the Euro in order to avoid difficulties. However this centrifugal force will be opposed by the level attraction of the one and only zone ... Read
  • The seven facets of the world crisis in gestation February 2006 - The American and Iranian decisions coming into effect the week of March 20-26, 2006 will catalyse seven sectoral crises into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic, financial and probably military fields: loss of confidence in the Dollar, explosion of the US financial imbalances, oil crisis, end of the US leadership, distrust towards the Arab-Muslim world, inefficiency of global governance and uncertainties as to the European governance. Of course these crises are interconnected, even if the actors in each sector have a tendency to take into consideration their sectoral datas only; it is precisely this feature which increases the risk of acceleration of the course of History at the end of March 2006. In the present issue, the first two sectoral crises are detailed. The other ... Read
  • March 20-26, 2006 – Release of major world crisis: « The end of the Western World we have known since 1945 » February 2006 - We estimate to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, accompanied by an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%. The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international ... Read
  • EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of/on the EU January 2006 - In this beginning  of 2006,  the project  of constitutional  treaty  is still at the centre  of most  EU discussions. Does this mean that the process of ratification is being rejuvenated or is it the sign of a profound deadlock in which the EU institutions and political leaders are stuck? What course will follow the EU between today and the June 2006 Summit, a summit first designed to mark the end of the “thinking era” initiated in June 2005? The answer to these questions depends on three factors out of which the first will be analysed in this issue of the ‘GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin’ (GEAB) : the capacity  of each member  state to determine  a strategy  concerning  the future of the constitutional project the capacity of the various European institutional players ... Read
  • The future of the European constitutional project … … Member-states amidst the hardships of the Constitutional Treaty’s future January 2006 - The French and Dutch « Noes » broke the constitutional march projected by the European institutions and the governments. The unexpected freeze of the ratification process all around the EU proves it. This freeze illustrates the immense problem raised by the French and Dutch votes in each and every other member-state: national political classes are from now on afraid of the ratification process itself. The reason is simple: this process acts as a catalyst of their rejection by their public opinions. Which does not mean either that the French and Dutch votes merely reflected national preoccupations, as the referenda’s losers were keen on arguing, quite the contrary. And that’s precisely what frightens most the national political classes. It is precisely the European dimension of the stakes and of the debate ... Read