Archives

  • Political, economic and military consequences of the US mid-term election: Towards an aggravation of US leadership weaknesses November 2006 - The recent choice by American voters, who have violently rejected the policy followed for six years, is nothing other than a loud cry for help. As much as Iraq, the economic and social questions, and the rejection of corruption in Washington, determined the choice of the voters. This question of corruption is a significant indicator on two levels: . Firstly, it is revealing of a society in a fast process of impoverishment because corruption becomes the dominating topic only when the majority of citizens feel illegitimate the enrichment of its elite, and happening to the detriment of its own wellbeing. Corruption is not a topic found in “sound” societies. It is in the Third World or in countries in economic or polical transition that it is normally found. This tends ... Read
  • December 2006 – Dollar-Real Estate-Stock Markets: US consumer’s insolvency, a catalyst of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis November 2006 - The American mid-term elections have now passed and, only a week later, as announced by LEAP/E2020 in GEAB N°8 of last October 15, the “euphorisation” of US voters/consumers and world financial players seems to have already passed wit them. The development process of the global systemic crisis has resumed its course, artificially stopped last July due to the upcoming mid-term elections, as shown by the recent changes in the Dollar’s value and by the latest US economy indicators. In parallel, a series of topics which had curiously disappeared from the pages of financial media these last months is reappearing, such as the end of the “carry-trade” based on the Yen, increasing fears of the risk of implosion of the market for derivatives and “hedge funds” and of course the uninterrupted fall ... Read
  • November 2006: beginning of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis October 2006 - Last May, in the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin N°5, LEAP/E2020 had detailed the four phases of the global systemic crisis, indicating that the phase known as of acceleration would start in June and would be spread out over a period of a maximum six months at which stage, the explosive phase of the crisis, the “impact phase”, would start. Following these last months developments and the central part played by the United States in the current global system, LEAP/E2020 announces that the phase of impact will begin in November 2006 and that this phase’s catalyst will be the mid-term elections of the United States Congress which is the cross point of the main fracture lines of the current global system. The phase of acceleration consisted of the generalized realization that the ... Read
  • Israel 2020: 2 scenarios for the future Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state September 2006 - Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number 7 of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, our teams present the two major options which, according to our work, are offered to the Israelis as the future of their country byn the year 2020. The summer 2006 Lebanese-Israeli crisis has indeed made it possible to identify more precisely the parameters which from now on will define the regional equation of the Middle East. The development of the two scenarios thus integrates the often radical transformation of seven strategic parameters. Each of the two scenarios is then a result of the type of answers ... Read
  • Trends – Continuing of the fall of the Dollar / A US economy entering stagflation September 2006 - Firstly, LEAP/E2020 confirms the crisis is still accelerating and should last from June to November 2006, as we had already announced last May. In addition, our teams can now anticipate more precisely two essential developments: the continuing of the fall of the Dollar compared to the Euro, with a new acceleration by the end of September, which will start impacting many export sector forecasts for 2007 (from European agriculture to technological companies) the stagnation of the American economy in a phase of stagflation and the rise of unemployment. Continuing fall of the Dollar compared to the Euro, with a new acceleration by the end of September Since the beginning of the year, the Dollar exchange rate decreased from 1,18 Euros to 1,28 Euros, with peaks around 1,29/1,30. These last weeks ... Read
  • September 2006: IMF confirms LEAP/E2020’s anticipations on Global Systemic Crisis September 2006 - While LEAP/E2020 publishes the present GEAB issue, continuing its work of anticipation of a global systemic crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes two reports which confirm the forecasts released by LEAP/E2020 throughout the year. In these two reports, the IMF draws a disturbing picture of the risks weighing over the global economy. It analyses and comments at length the following trends: US real-estate bubble collapse, US economy recession, US Federal Reserve’s dilemma regarding interest rates developments, long-term fall of the dollar, long-term rise of oil prices. These are precisely the economic and financial indicators used by LEAP/E2020 to develop its forecast of a crisis. Collapse of US real-estate bubble LEAP/E2020– 15/03/2006: «The housing bubble really starts to burst… Some of the predictions made by LEAP/E2020 have already become true, including ... Read
  • EU BORDERS – The end of the myth of eternal enlargement: Turkey-Ukraine, two countries which will not join the EU / The Balkans, last enlargement of the next 20 years / Russia, the key to solve the EU-Turkey problem June 2006 - The increasing difficulties of the process of Turkey entering the European Union contrasts with the progressive  entry “piece by piece” of the former Yugoslavia (Slovenia is already a member and Croatia  is starting  its integration  process  while proposals  to integrate  the other Balkan countries multiply). This contrast is all the more striking if one compares the evolution in public opinion with regard to the EU in the various countries concerned. In Turkey, the image of the EU and prospect for integration have been deteriorating regularly since the end of 2004 (the symbolic date of the EU “green light” to negotiations); whereas in the countries of former Yugoslavia the opposite trend can be seen. As far as the European public opinion is concerned, with a general background of “tiredness” with the ... Read
  • Global systemic crisis – Phase II: Only a few weeks left to avoid the worse… June 2006 - On May 15, 2006, in GEAB N°5, LEAP/E2020 announced that phase II of the global systemic crisis – the so called « acceleration phase » – would start in June 2006 and that it would be characterised by a general awareness of the existence of such a global systemic crisis. The strong and ongoing fall of all stock exchange indicators all over the planet in the past weeks clearly indicates the start of this acceleration phase of the crisis, a fact which has now become obvious to all economical and financial players. These players are now seeing their past reference points fading and their certitudes being smashed to pieces. The relative value of the loans throughout the world is being disrupted and, for a great number of them, long term ... Read
  • EU 2007 French presidential elections: towards an election full of surprises / Upcoming German EU presidency: the reasons why it is doomed to impotence May 2006 - During the first semester  of 2007, two major events for the EU will combine.  In fact, European authorities believe that that semester will be key in re-launching  the broken down EU: on the one hand, the French presidential  election, and on the other hand, the German presidency  of the EU. However LEAP/E2020 anticipates that the French election is most likely to provoke some surprises and to disappoint the European expectations placed in it. While the German EU presidency has already set for itself unreachable goals. French presidential elections 2007 (April 22 and May  6): towards an election full of surprises Of course, it is always difficult to anticipate electoral results one year ahead; this is not the aim of LEAP/E2020 anyway. In line with the rest of its analyses, LEAP/E2020 ... Read
  • Acceleration phase of the crisis: Seven concrete consequences for economic and political players and decision-makers May 2006 - LEAP/E2020 anticipates that the loss of confidence sector by sector will converge in June 2006, and tend to generalise in each sector, resulting in an acceleration of the crisis. The acceleration will occur over a period of three to six months and have seven major consequences. Consequence N°1 – Accelerated decline of the US-Dollar Since LEAP/E2020 first published its Crisis Alert on the global systemic crisis (February 15, 2006), at a time when the vast majority of analysts anticipated a year which would be beneficial to the US-Dollar, the EURUSD-exchange  rate has climbed from 1,18 to 1,29. The US-Dollar in parallel has depreciated against all other major currencies (Yen, Suisse Franc, Sterling, Yuan,… ). For three months, international media and analysts treated this evolution with indifference, as if this was ... Read